Forget the fact that the U.S. faces a cost-of-living crisis. The prices on some “nice-to-have” goods and services are so ridiculous that I believe it’s never been more important to reinforce the principles of price elasticity.

Isn’t there something about the “$7.5 +” combined with the image that is just offensive?

I know, never doubt the American consumer, but at some point our willingness to pay for certain things has got to change…

I’m not sure about you, but I’ll be keeping my eye on the, “cold brew in a major U.S. city” price index as a sign of just how much cultural rot is occurring.

In Recent Times…

It’s funny how life will sometimes give you exactly what you need, at the perfect moment.

One of my best friends recently had to move away from Philadelphia for work. We were accustomed to having plans at least once or twice a week, and could easily have impromptu hang outs a few more times since we only lived three blocks away from one another.

I have a lot of friends scattered throughout the city, but we’re all busy and everyone is pretty locked into their routines on weekly basis. I’ve spent much of the last few weeks thinking about how I’d like a better community in my neighborhood for random little activities like taking a walk, grabbing a coffee, or having dinner.

Enter last night (now two weeks ago since I wrote this).

It started when I went to the gym unusually late for a Friday, and one of my acquaintances from the basketball group at the gym was also there. We played some 1 v. 1 to warm up for our lifts and got to socializing quite a bit.

I stopped on my way home from the gym for groceries, and as I continued on my way, I came across a small party happening on one of the big stoops that line Spruce Street downtown.

In my head I was admiring how nice it must be for this group of friends to be able to enjoy the good company without “doing” anything. Just hangin’ on the front steps.

No sooner than I had formulated that thought, they invited me to join! I was almost in shock.

I ran home to put the groceries away, and when I came back 20 minutes later, they were waiting for me with a drink and a bunch of people to meet.

We spent the rest of the evening getting to know each other, laughing, and inviting more people onto the stoop. I made a bunch of new friends and I got added to a group chat with a bunch of folks that live nearby. Just what the doctor ordered!

As it turns out, you may not need to go looking for a community to join. Just walk a little slower, and say yes when it invites you over to the stoop.

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

I enjoy The Infographics Show YouTube channel for its simplistic breakdowns and easy-to-understand narratives. Not the best place to go if you want to deep dive a subject, but a perfectly reasonable home if you’re looking for a quick intro or recap on something.

Also, you’ve got to give them credit for the eye-catching thumbnails… 😂. Very cheap move, but you need to grab a prospective viewer’s attention somehow.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 marked one of the most devastating protectionist moments in American history. Even according to the U.S. Senate’s website, “…it was on June 13, 1930, that the Senate passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, among the most catastrophic acts in congressional history.”

Yikes.

Democratization of Creation 👾🧬🌼

The gap between how AI superusers and casual users are using the tools at their disposal is pretty big… I think.

I say that because the AI tools out there are now powerful enough that if they were fully adopted and thoughtfully deployed, the world economy would be drastically different than it is today. That probably sounds crazy when the biggest companies in the world are all tightly coupled with AI, but I still think it’s true.

Power users are already leveraging AI agents to build entire applications, debug complex systems, and prototype ideas at lightning speed — essentially wielding AI as a force multiplier that turns thoughts into something real.

I think normal people are mostly using LLMs for much more basic prompts.

This gap in how people contemplate use cases must have existed in the early internet era (someone let me know, I’m not old enough to opine on the technical skill curve that existed at that time).

But it feels like there's something unique happening here — we're not just breaking down information asymmetries anymore, we're democratizing the ability to create, to build, to manifest thoughts into reality through code, image and video generation, and even mass ideation. I am particularly fascinated with the code production capabilities that are already available.

Traditional programming gatekeepers (syntax, system architecture, tool selection) are dissolving faster than we can adapt our educational systems. Soon, the limiting variable won't be coding ability at all. It will be the soft skills, like imagination and problem-solving instincts.

I sort of got at this in RRR23 when I wrote about making knowledge functional, but I did not anticipate where we would be technologically today:

In the past, having particular knowledge about something was actually a net benefit to those around you. Technically, it still is a net benefit, but only if you couple it with the ability to explain it clearly to others, and use it as a framework to think through other problems.

I’m a firm believer that you ought to invest in the soft skills, such as verbal and written communication, emotional intelligence, critical thinking, etc.

AND / OR

become a true subject matter expert on something.

My whole theory on this is that slightly above baseline knowledge and understanding, while awesome to have, is easily acquired now via internet search engines, and can be made even more digestible with the use of LLMs.

We’re approaching a world where being creative is going to matter more than a decade of technical training — what a time to be alive.

Larry June and Redefining the “Flex” in Rap Music 💪🏻🍵

In my opinion, Larry June has become one of hip-hop's most fascinating artists. Rap music is a genre built on bravado and excess, so it’s incredible how he has carved out a niche that celebrates things which are often profoundly ordinary.

From the first time I heard "Watering My Plants," I was struck by his sound and lyrics — rap is supposed to be braggadocios, and he was rapping about utterly attainable things. He was making it cool to pay your bills on time, to drink tea, to go for walks, to water your plants.

Don’t get me wrong — Larry definitely loves some fancy cars and expensive dinners, but his music is relatable in a way for normal people. What is more normal / aspirational than having a smoothie, making sure your car is running well, and hitting a quick bike ride?

The Thunder Win — I’ll Be Thinking of the Indiana Pacers 🕊🏀

It's not often that after an NBA champion is crowned, you're left thinking more about the team that didn't win it all.

But that's exactly how I feel now that the young and remarkable Oklahoma City Thunder capped off a historically great season with an NBA championship.

I'm still thinking about the grit and veteran savvy of Pascal Siakam, who became a spiritual leader for his team throughout the playoffs.

I'm still thinking about the toughness and basketball IQ that Andrew Nembhard displayed throughout the playoffs once again.

I'm thinking about Aaron Nesmith fouling the living hell out of everyone while simultaneously playing stellar defense and drilling clutch shots when it mattered most.

How could I not think about TJ McConnell? A journeyman who wasn't supposed to be THIS impactful in the playoffs, yet somehow became the heartbeat of the bench unit.

And of course, I'm thinking about the absolute heater that Tyrese Haliburton was on before he tragically tore his Achilles in the final game — a cruel twist that robbed us of seeing this magical run reach its full potential.

What made this Pacers team so captivating wasn't any single superstar performance, but rather how a collection of overlooked players, castoffs, and developing talents coalesced into something far greater than anyone imagined.

They played with joy, they played with purpose, and they believed genuinely that they could compete at the highest level. They were right!

In a league increasingly dominated by super teams and manufactured chemistry, the Pacers reminded us that basketball in its purest form is a true team sport. Sometimes the most beautiful stories aren't about the glory of victory, but about how much joy they inspire in others.

Think of a Venn Diagram that’s close to a full circle:

I was thinking it’s a bit like streaming services, but there’s more complexity with the data tools.

In a single cloud computing platform, there are so many options to do the same thing that it can become paralyzing to make a decision on what you should use, not to mention trying to optimize your data architecture 🛠🌉.

As if the sheer functionality / optimal path isn’t hard enough to parse, the terminology used is just painful:

Data pipeline, data wrangling, ETL, data cleansing, data prep, data transformation, data mart, data warehouse, data lake…

DATA LAKEHOUSE!?!?

Seriously, who comes up with this stuff?

It’s this kind of nonsense jargon that makes most industries / domains seem unapproachable. We should do better.

In Recent Times…

I can’t lie to myself anymore, I am exhausted with cold/dark winters.

Could I be better? Could I get outside for some morning walks, and do a better job of seeking out some winter activities like snowshoeing and skiing? Sure.

But my god, the warm weather makes it feel like you’re playing the game of life on the easiest level.

One thing I was really struggling with towards the end of the winter was working out hard.

The cumulative effect of prolonged dark and cold just took a lot of fuel out of my body, and I felt like I wanted to go home after 15 minutes in the gym 😪💤.

Now that we’ve had a month of increasingly inviting climate, I’m still dodging the gym, but in favor of getting strong outside 🤷🏻‍♂️.

Here’s my routine:

1. Ride my bike 7 miles out

2. Stop on the way home at the dip bars, alternating dips with rounds of jump rope

3. Bike a little further to the pull up bars

4. Alternate pullups and pushups

5. Bike home

All I bring is water, my rope, and a resistance band to help me squeak out some extra pullups towards the end.

It takes me about an hour and a half to complete the cycle. It’s also infinitely more satisfying to my brain than going to the gym…

And I’m getting better results too! The quality of the environment is playing a role in the quality of my outcomes.

In particular, I’ve enjoyed the jump rope routine. I alternate between using my licorice rope and my rope with weighted handles.

The licorice rope, which is more standard, moves quickly and helps improve foot speed. The weighted handles really give your forearms and rotator cuffs a good burn after a while.

In total, the two ropes cost me $35.

It’s also fun, and serves as a bit of a creative outlet once you learn a few tricks or different jumping techniques.

If I listen to music while I jump, it kind of feels like I’m dancing 🕺🏻.

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

QTR’s Fringe Finance

Do The Rich Pay Their Fair Share of Taxes?

By Thomas Savidge, American Institute For Economic Research…

Read more

a year ago · 49 likes · 6 comments · Quoth the Raven

I loved this article because it critically examined the claim that wealthy Americans aren't contributing a “fair” amount in taxes.

As it turns out, federal tax data shows high earners do in fact pay a disproportional amount of the overall tax burden.

This shows us clearly that the popular narrative about the wealthy not paying a lot in taxes is often overstated and lacks nuance. Here’s a table shared in the article:

**IT IS EQUALLY IMPORTANT TO NOTE** — the article doesn’t deny the existence of economic inequality. Instead, it simply acts as a counterbalance to emotionally charged claims, urging us towards a more careful analysis.

When I shared this article with a family member, I added a few of my own thoughts.

One point I raised was about the capital gains tax. Under current U.S. law, long-term capital gains (i.e. securities held more than a year) are taxed at a flat 20%, regardless of the size of the gain.

Ultimately, someone earning $500 in gains is taxed at the same rate as someone earning $1 billion. That feels like a missed opportunity for progressivity and a candidate for a measured reform.

I also emphasized that the wealthy’s capital rarely sits idle. This is so important.

Wealth tends to be deployed — think about the millions of dollars a super-rich person has sitting in their high-yield savings account. That money doesn’t just sit there… it enters the economy in a myriad of ways.

Your 401k? It doesn’t sit there either — the funds you own utilize that capital throughout the global economy.

While it’s important to address mechanisms that perpetuate entrenched wealth, it’s also essential to avoid framing all capital ownership as exploitive or extractive. Productive capital allocation plays a critical role in advancing economic progress, just as it always has.

The article doesn't present a comprehensive solution to wealth inequality, but it does encourage more sober, fact-based discourse.

If we want to tackle inequality effectively, we need to move beyond slogans and toward sharper thinking about the tools we use and the outcomes we want.

Taming the Psoas Muscle — Mover’s Odyssey

I’ve been dealing with some extreme S.I. joint pain lately, stemming from over activity during basketball season.

This video (like all the Mover’s Odyssey videos), is succinct in describing the human physiology component, the movement that it affects, and how to strengthen / stabilize.

I honestly didn’t even know what the Psoas was…

Is America’s GDP Inflated? 🏭📈🎈

Americans love to celebrate our eye-popping GDP figures, but when was the last time we took an honest accounting of what underpins that metric?

There are many things that play a role in our GDP numbers, but if you look at it objectively, it’s hard not to feel there is an uncomfortable relationship to America’s role in the global order.

Should that role in the global order change to become less-favorable to the United States, there may be unprecedented deflationary pressure on our economy.

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing used the term “exorbitant privilege” to describe the benefits realized by the U.S. economy as a result of the dollar being the global reserve currency.

Essentially, exorbitant privilege means a lot of the dollars we use to buy goods from other nations returns back into our economy in the form of investments, as those countries need dollar-based avenues to do business with the rest of the world.

That means we are allowed to run up eye-popping deficits annually at a lower-interest rate than we should be allowed to enjoy, which artificially supports a quality of life / living standard that would be unrealistic for other nations with such vulnerable financial positions.

This isn't an argument to abandon GDP — it's simply about questioning whether the “objective” measures of prosperity we often refer to are perfectly reflective of our economic might, or merely the result of a well-established global pecking order that is undergoing a transformation.

As we rapidly reconfigure our approach to global trade through tariffs and other measures, we may be inadvertently accelerating a reckoning with this uncomfortable question.

What would remain of America's impressive GDP figures if the privileges of our position in the world began to fade?

I hope to never get an answer on that.

U.S. Housing Still A Disaster

If ever it felt like an issue was underserved in American public discourse, it’s the inaccessibility of homeownership.

The situation is so brutal that even with historically low demand for homes, there’s little hope in the short term of affordability making an appearance on stage.

A drop in interest rates would likely just increase housing demand while doing little to increase supply.

The problem will not meaningfully relent until we have abundant housing supply, which by the way, would not be great for existing homeowners! Especially the ones who bought recently during the historically steep affordability environment.

At this rate, I’m mentally prepared to rent for quite a bit longer.

Not Your Father’s Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Pacers are no joke — they’ve just reached their second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearance by dismantling a historically good Cleveland Cavaliers team. They’ve done it as a team in the truest sense of the word, leaning on a brand of basketball rooted in intelligence, toughness, cohesion, and sure, an offensive genius in Tyrese Haliburton.

Haliburton sets the tone. He plays at a uniquely torrid tempo, manipulates defenses, and delivers timely, precise passes while limiting turnovers. His speed, poise and vision are the engine behind an offense that extracts maximum goodness out of every possession.

Around him, the Pacers thrive as a collective. Andrew Nembhard is a revelation. Pascal Siakam provides serious scoring punch, athletic prowess, and size. Aaron Nesmith plays with relentless effort on both sides of the ball and is a feel-good story after his early years in Boston. Obi Toppin adds vertical explosiveness and is knocking down his open looks. Myles Turner anchors the paint and stretches the floor.

Their style is unmistakably intentional. Every cut has a purpose. Every pass works toward a better shot. The team operates with clarity, awareness, and trust.

In an NBA era defined by star-driven drama and highlight reels, the Pacers are proof that sharp execution and shared purpose can still win. Their brilliance is quieter — but you can hear them now.

P.S. — Caitlin Cooper, one of the best basketball writers / minds on the planet, has a Patreon where she posts video analysis and written breakdowns on all things Indiana Pacers. I’ve been following her for a couple of years and can safely say I’ve not come across more informed and thought-provoking basketball content.

Here’s a free article / video she recently published after the Pacers reached the third round of the playoffs .

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

Other days, ignorance begets more ignorance:

This is probably what I love the most about chess - it simply demands focus and a clear mind (even when you’re not playing).

If you go into a match, or study different parts of a game in the wrong headspace, you are mostly going to get bad results.

Since I started playing and studying much more frequently a couple months ago, I feel more focused even when I’m doing something unrelated to chess ^{♟️🧘🏻‍♂️💡.}

Add me on chess.com if you want some easy wins :).

In Recent Times…

Thanks to instant information, we are living through an age of intellectual karaoke.

The voices may vary, but everyone is singing the same lyrics.

Maybe it’s always been this way to a more modest extent, when it actually took time for ideas to disseminate through channels with much less virality.

Maybe it’s much easier to notice now that the thoughts are so unnatural.

The tariff announcement last week was pretty intense… talk about an economic shock. With time, I imagine there will be a perfectly formed line of thinking as to why this sweeping policy was wise and strategic, and you will see the loudest voices on Twitter echoing it to perfection.

I’m already seeing words like “detox” and phrases like “sick patient” being used to describe the pre-"liberation” economy.

Sidebar comment — Liberation Day? “Gold Cards” for U.S. citizenship with Trump’s face on it? That’s to say nothing of the crypto grifting…

Society’s B.S. meter is completely broken, which worries me far more than even such drastic economic policy announcements. Policies can be rolled back quickly, whereas cultural rot takes time to break.

We’re living in confusing times — don’t be afraid to be unsure of what’s true (especially when there’s breaking / developing events), and try not to pre-order opinions that are cooked up by the same individuals.

The more you really dig into everything your favorite author, podcaster, or news anchor has to say, the more you realize they are right about some things and wrong about some things, just like the rest of us!

Also, if you do have your own opinion on something, let it rip! Just don’t be married to it when presented with new or better information (time usually gifts us this in spades).

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

Dave Smith & Douglas Murray on JRE

Dave and Douglas have been making the podcast rounds recently and admirably decided to sit down for an hours long debate on the Joe Rogan Experience.

I’m not choosing to share this for the specifics of what they get into (though it is interesting and worth listening to), but just to highlight the importance of two people getting into a room and sparring ideas.

The Wonder of Vietnam 💚🟢🌳🌴

One of my dreams in life is to find 3-6 months and go explore Asia — if I ever make it happen, I think I’ll need to dedicate at least a month to Vietnam.

The beautiful beaches, open pacific, lush greenery, and even the rainfall make Vietnam one of the most visually stunning places on earth.

Also as an FYI — this video pairs really well with a cup of hot lemon water while you get ready for a Friday afternoon nap 😂.

Fossil Fuel Reliance 📉📉

One of the obvious trends you see in the world is the clean energy revolution. There is a super-weird faction of folks who still talk about fossil fuels as if they’re the future, but they are powerless (🚫⚡) to stop this transition.

In the U.S, fossil fuels reportedly made up less than 50% of electricity generation for the first month on record in March.

In particular, solar is playing an increasing role in clean energy usage:

Solar power is set to account for more than half of new generating capacity installed in the US in 2025, with more than a third of new solar panels going to Texas. Solar’s rise has been extraordinary. Ten years ago, in March 2015, solar power accounted for just 1% of US electricity generation. By March 2025, this had grown to 9.2%.

Kawhi Leonard’s Resurgence

Kawhi Leonard is as close to a perfect basketball player as there is in the NBA. The size, ball handling, shooting, passing, offensive versatility + defensive versatility — he just has the most complete game of almost anyone I’ve ever seen.

Yet, the basketball world has strangely soured on him in recent years due to his struggles staying on the court.

“Struggles” might not even accurately describe the tumultuous injury history of Leonard — torn ACLs, torn meniscus’, chronic inflammation, thigh tendinopathy, you name it!

He missed the first 34 games of this years’ campaign, and it makes what he’s doing now even more impressive.

In the final fifteen games of this regular season, the Los Angeles Clippers have the number one ranked offense and the number three ranked defense in large part to the brilliance of Leonard on both ends.

Yesterday, I had the lazy Sunday of a lifetime — after a great morning workout, I got to kick back on the sofa with a plate of nachos and watch (potentially) the best game of this NBA season featuring the surging Clippers and the in-form Warriors.

Mr. Leonard wasn’t the only protagonist on the floor — Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, James Harden, and Ivica Zubac (who might all of a sudden be a top-5 center in basketball) all had incredible showings.

Yet, it seemed like the presence and timeliness of Leonard made the difference in the game. Every time the Clippers needed a basket, he seemed to come up big, including just some ridiculous tough shot making against one of the best defensive units in the league.

The three at 0:43, the drive and dunk at 1:13, the off the dribble three at 1:53, all culminating in the nastiest bucket of the night at 3:23 where he makes Podziemski and Draymond Green each look foolish before sticking a pure jumper from 22 feet out.

Leonard finished the night with 13 makes on 20 attempts — just a ridiculous accuracy especially when you consider the profile of shots he was taking.

Anyways, it may be the case the Leonard will again fail to get through an entire postseason run in good health, but no matter what happens I am thankful for the opportunity to watch him at the peak of his powers one more time.

The Clippers will face off against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs, game 1 is on April 19th.

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

In Recent Times…

⚠⚠ The following concerns a pretty cliché subject in today’s era of hyper-digitalization / instant-information. But it was on my mind, so 🤷‍♂️ ⚠⚠

How often are each of us ignoring opportunities for sustaining happiness and life-satisfaction in exchange for hollow dopamine hits?

We are truly hamsters on the wheel of consumption. We run remarkably fast to consume the latest meme, podcast, “hot take” on social media, or TV show on Netflix. That’s just the content we choose to consume — ads get funneled into our minds and we hardly even know it.

In fact, there is so much for us to consume, that many of us have gotten incredibly sophisticated with how we squeeze efficiency out of our day.

Unnecessary busyness is the equivalent of pawning off our agency, and even the essence of what it means to have humanity. If you’re feeling lost or overwhelmed, don’t consume more to try and fix it.

Go dark — disappear for a little bit, go for a three-hour walk, take a vacation and zap your technology usage if you can. Do something, anything, except more of the same.

I was fortunate to escape the freezing weather up north last week, and I made a point of not consuming too much information.

I worked out, took some walks, met friends for dinner, played chess, and allowed myself about four hours on one rainy day to read.

I let my mind completely unwind, and I’m feeling great as a result 🧠💪.

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains, by

Though the tune of buying the dip has hardly changed, the environment it’s being sung in has. Stocks now trade at a Shiller PE that’s approaching 40x, a level only eclipsed once in history during the 2000s dot-com bubble.

But if the market’s price-to-earnings ratio and the macroeconomy didn’t matter when stocks were trading at 30x earnings, why should they matter with stocks trading at 40x earnings?

This indifference to valuations—helped along by the “passive bid” of 401(k)s and ETFs consistently buying the market at any given price (well explained by Bill Fleckenstein here on Julia LaRoche’s podcast, and then updated here during his appearance last week), combined with what is widely perceived to be an unlimited Fed put, combined with the unprecedented amount of liquidity doled out as a result of COVID, combined with the stock market becoming accessible to literally any human being on earth that wants to take their shot thanks to the advent of retail trading apps—has distorted expectations and psychology not just about the stock market, but also about the basic fundamentals of economics and finance, in a way that many of us probably would not have even thought fathomable 50 years ago.

I enjoyed this “bearish” coverage of the current state of markets if for no other reason than that it succinctly highlights the many factors that are pushing valuations so high.

I especially appreciated the callout on 401k accounts — “passive bid” is a great way to describe it.

From here, a sharp and decisive move lower in markets probably first comes as the result of an economy grinding slower, and then, in dramatic fashion, the quick cascade of deleveraging and speculation unwinding will torture people financially. But psychologically is where it is really going to torture a whole new generation of investors who have yet to feel any significant prolonged financial pain. Think about it: the COVID crash was over in a couple of weeks.

This means that there is an entire market full of investors who have not felt any type of prolonged recession or drawdown in markets. And they have definitely not felt a depression or the psychological uncertainty of what can happen if the market loses confidence in the currency or the creditworthiness of the United States.

As a fairly new market participant (5 years or so if you don’t count 401k), the worst thing I’ve seen wasn’t the COVID crash, but the obliteration of “tech” stocks during 2022.

Yet, there was nothing “prolonged” about that. What would it even look like if another true economic crisis came knocking at the door?

I don’t have the answers, but it’s healthy to be aware of the downside risks that are looming around the corner, even if they never come out to show themselves.

More tips for being non-partisan in a partisan age, by

In our modern world, every topic that makes it into the public sphere quickly has two diametrically opposed versions of the “truth”.

Within a day or so of an issue being prominent, it seems like everyone you know has perfectly recited one of those two versions, with little ability to acknowledge the often glaringly obvious faults in their position.

For what its worth, not many versions of the “truth” are lacking more substance than the newly popular myth that Russia is completely justified in their campaign in Ukraine.

In any event, we do need to stand guard to ensure that absurd stances taken up by a group of people does not condemn them to being wrong about everything. In fact, it’s unusual that anyone is 100% wrong, 100% of the time.

Enter this piece with genuinely helpful tips on how to operate without bias, at a time when that is needed more than ever:

The first lesson was, basically, that we should all have a fierce and unwavering commitment to our principles — or, as we like to say at FIRE, Be willing to drive the bus into a wall before compromising them.

The second lesson was to consciously and actively promote and preserve viewpoint diversity among your ranks. Whether it’s your staff or your social circles, ideological bubbles and echo chambers are where free expression and the free exchange of ideas go to die. Once that happens, innovation, progress, and any hope of achieving your goals won’t be far behind. The alternative is gathering a cohort of smart people from different backgrounds and with differing perspectives who can disagree honestly and work together. This creates an environment in which your assumptions and arguments are constantly tested, sharpened, and improved upon.

People really do matter. Can you think of truly transformative moments in your life where you leveled up your way of thinking without anyone else influencing you in that direction? I most certainly cannot.

There are many more helpful tips and examples of how to apply them in the full article.

Ferguson’s Law ⚖

The extent to which debt servicing exceeds defense spending is historically an advance indicator of great power decline. Financial capacity determines a great power’s ability to project military strength and sustain a commensurate military infrastructure. Regardless of regime type, every state faces competing foreign and domestic claims on its resources. When such commitments in total exceed annual revenues, the state runs deficits, debt accumulates, and interest payments rise (unless the rate of interest simultaneously declines).

In 2024 the U.S. began violating Ferguson’s law, and many projections see the problem getting worse, not better, in the immediate term.

Maybe not the best time for massive tax cuts?

Of course, Ferguson’s law is not actual law. Yet, it’s a convenient framework from which to view the vulnerable position the U.S. is actually in.

The budgetary axe that cuts spending for the sake of debt service is often the harbinger of broader fiscal strains and political instability. “Austerity measures” are seldom without direct political consequences. They can exacerbate political polarization, stoke popular dissatisfaction with a state’s ruling elite, or sow dissension within the elite itself. All else being equal, a fractured polity will face greater difficulties in forming a durable political consensus that prioritizes external military commitments over internal civilian ones

Read the full paper here.

Culdesac, Tempe

Here’s a cool story about a subculture I love.

It’s been two years since Culdesac Tempe, the self-proclaimed "first car-free neighborhood in America," opened with a goal of making walkability its centerpiece. With the first phase finished last year, the high-profile development continues to unfold on a 17-acre site along a light rail line in an established neighborhood about 15 miles east of downtown Phoenix. The $200 million project now includes 288 apartment units with about 300 tenants, reeling residents in with appeals of a healthier, more eco-friendly lifestyle, built-in community with ample amenities, and accessible transit to Tempe and the greater metro area.

I’ve always loved walkable neighborhoods — there’s something beautiful about walking 4-5 miles as you go about your business on a nice day. Similarly, it’s great when cars take a back seat to us humans, for a change. This is especially true given the epidemic of reckless and distracted driving, cc:

Instead of broad asphalt streets, a series of paseos between 10- and 15-feet wide stretch between clusters of flat-topped, irregularly situated two- and three-story buildings coated in heat-deflecting white stucco and sporadically adorned with vibrant murals. Walkways open onto brick courtyards and communal spaces ornamented with public art.

"It reminds me of Mykonos," Murdock says, however surprising that might sound. "The walkways, which limit sun and heat exposure, wind between bright-white buildings while color accents make the whole thing feel bright and welcoming."

While there aren’t full car-free neighborhoods, walkability and enhancing the experience of people on the streets is growing in popularity around the U.S.

It’s something that my home of Philadelphia has experimented with a lot recently:

Here are some of my own photos from car-free Sundays this past summer:

Just people enjoying the outdoors, and having a good time. Plus, this turned out to be great for retail in the area!

I’m glad this pro-human uprising is gaining some momentum 😄.

The Genius of Darius Garland 🧠💡🎯

It shouldn’t come as a surprise to the basketball world that Darius Garland is putting together a historically great season.

After all, Steph Curry himself was heaping praise on the then 21-year-old upstart back in 2021.

I too, have been a fan of Garland since I saw him emerge on the NBA stage. His ball handling and shooting popped off the screen the first few times I got to watch him play. Most of all, though, I saw he had the right ingredients to be a good corporate citizen within the confines of an NBA offense.

Willingness to get off the ball, intelligence when spacing the floor, and moving/relocating without the ball are some examples of the positive traits he had coming into the league.

With a few years under his belt, he’s nearly mastered the art of passing, and those great qualities I mentioned are a big reason that the Cavaliers have been unstoppable this season, boasting the second best offensive and net rating in the league.

He’s also separating himself as an offensive threat by using his almost unnatural quick twitch movement. There’s nothing more difficult to defend effectively than someone with his combination of quickness, change of direction / pace, precise ball handling, and complete package of shots to choose from.

Check out the first few minutes of this video, where you can see it all on display — perfect pocket passes, hesitation dribbles, shot fakes, and composure with the ball when getting into the painted area. Specifically, watch how the threat of his floater shots in the paint can draw the rim protector from the defense out, setting up his assists at the basket.

And those three-point shots… 👌

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

See you next time!

-Tiko

Below, you’ll find the output of some of that work — I actually presented this to my buddy over some tea 🍵.

In this particular instance, I’ve owned shares of XPO since June of last year, and doing this deep dive aided me in making the decision to trim the position fairly substantially.

Embarrassing to sell some shares so quickly, but that is in fact the whole point of this exercise.

It’s better to have real conviction than not stay up to date with what your money is tied up in.

I hope you enjoy!

*Obviously not investment advice*.

Company Overview

XPO Logistics is a transportation and logistics company that helps businesses move their goods from one place to another. Think of them as a large-scale shipping and delivery company that primarily focuses on:

1. Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Trucking - They operate a large fleet trucks to transport goods across the country. More on LTL in a bit.

2. Freight Management - They help companies figure out the best ways to ship their products

3. Warehousing - They store products for companies

4. Last-Mile Delivery - They deliver large items like furniture and appliances to people's homes

They're particularly known for handling heavy or bulky items that are difficult to ship, like furniture, appliances, and industrial equipment. In essence, they're a key middleman that helps products get from manufacturers to stores or directly to customers.

What is LTL?

● LTL is freight transportation where a carrier combines multiple shipments from different customers (shippers) in a single truck, a delivers to the customers of the shippers (consignees). The key here is multiple customers having shipments in the same truck (i.e. Less-Than-Truckload).

● These shipments are typically too large for carriers like UPS/FedEx but too small to fill an entire trailer

● Think of it as freight "sharing" - multiple shippers share space on the same truck to split the transportation costs. Uber Pool for shipping.

Financials

Revenue

• Q3 2024 revenue was $2.05 billion, up 4% year-over-year

• North American LTL segment revenue grew 2% YoY in Q3 2024

• European Transportation segment revenue grew 7% YoY in Q3 2024

Profitability

• EPS of $0.79 in Q3 ‘24, up from $0.72 YoY

• Net Income of $95M in Q3 ‘24, up 11% YoY

Operational Efficiency Metrics

• Reduced outsourced miles to 13.6%

• Shipments from local customers (a key growth area) grew 10% YoY

• Operationalized 21 of 28 new service centers with the last 7 planned to be online in 1H ‘25

Competition

Market Position:

• XPO is the 3rd largest LTL carrier by 2023 revenue

• They have approximately 9% market share in the LTL industry

• The top 10 LTL players hold about 75% of the US LTL market

Key Competitors:

• ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line)

• SAIA

• Estes

• Yellow (which went bankrupt in 2023)

• FedEx Freight

• ARCB (ArcBest)

Comparative Performance:

• Service Metrics:

  • XPO has improved damage claims ratio to 0.2% in Q3 2024, down from 1.2% when they started their LTL 2.0 initiative

  • They've improved on-time performance for 10 consecutive quarters

  • Made progress in customer service rankings and was "most improved on a two-year stack" in NPS scores

• Financial Performance:

  • XPO was "the only public LTL carrier to expand margin in the third quarter" of 2024

  • They've delivered nearly 400 basis points of OR (Operating Ratio) improvement for four consecutive quarters in a soft freight market

  • Their yield growth has outpaced the market

• Network/Capacity:

  • Added 28 new service centers (21 operational as of Q3 2024)

  • Will have approximately 30% excess door capacity when all new centers are operational

  • Covers 99% of US zip codes

Competitive Advantages:

• They are the only US freight transportation company that manufactures its own trailers

  • This allows for capacity potential that can be realized on their own timing, which can lead to cost advantages and more adaptability to quick shifting needs

  • Cost advantages would include cheaper production costs vs. ordering trailers from third party manufacturers

• Premium services lead to higher pricing power than most competition, longer and healthier customer relationships, and represents an increasing amount of revenue with improving margins YoY.

  • Premium services include cross-border with Mexico, tradeshow services leveraging their new logistics center in Las Vegas, and retail focused services (coordinated shipping for multiple vendors during large retail campaigns like Halloween, Christmas, or Black Friday).

The company appears to be performing well against competitors, particularly in terms of margin improvement and service metrics. However, they still indicate they have opportunities to close gaps with "best-in-class" carriers, particularly in pricing where they note a "mid-teens pricing gap" versus best-in-class competitors that they are working to close.

Key Risks

• Highly Cyclical

  • Less economic activity directly correlates with XPO bottom line

• Significant industry capacity

  • Many other capable carriers could lead to price competition especially if macro-environment remains challenged

• High level of continued investment needed to maintain quality of fleet, technology, etc.

• Improving but still elevated leverage ratio of 2.5X

  • End of 2023: 3.0x

  • Q1 2024: 2.9x

  • Q2 2024: 2.7x

  • Q3 2024: 2.5x

Investment Thesis

XPO represents a potentially compelling investment opportunity driven by management's proven execution capabilities and clear strategic vision. Under CEO Mario Harik's leadership, the company has demonstrated consistent operational improvements through its LTL 2.0 strategy, with damage claims ratio improving from 1.2% to 0.2%, yield growth consistently outpacing the market, and adjusted operating ratio improving year-over-year. The company has shown strong financial discipline by steadily reducing its net leverage ratio from 3.0x at the end of 2023 to 2.5x as of Q3 2024, while simultaneously reinvesting significantly in the business through strategic fleet upgrades and service center expansions.

The upcoming divestiture of XPO's European operations, which management has indicated is a priority, should further strengthen the company's financial position. With the European business holding leading market positions across multiple countries and demonstrating improving performance (7% revenue growth in Q3 2024), the sale should generate meaningful proceeds that can accelerate XPO's path to an investment-grade credit profile while enabling complete focus on its core North American LTL business. Combined with management's track record of successful strategic divestitures (including GXO and RXO) and demonstrated ability to drive operational improvements, XPO appears well-positioned for the future. The largest impediment to XPOs short to mid-term prospect would be macroeconomic instability.

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I hope the most recent holiday season brought lots of positive energy into your life.

No matter how challenging the past has been, life constantly offers us a renewed chance to improve ourselves and uplift our loved ones.

As we flip our calendars to 2025, what are you most looking forward to?

I know... New Year's resolutions have a reputation for fizzling out.

Yet, I think we should be kinder when people commit to getting in better shape, building stronger relationships, or exploring what brings them happiness, even if the results are inconsistent or short-term.

The beauty of these efforts lies in their beginnings. Each attempt marks the early stages of building habits that can genuinely enhance quality of life. We should celebrate those taking steps towards self-improvement (👏) and reflect on how we can align our own actions more closely with the desires of our soul.

For 2025, I’m challenging myself to:

• Continue improving my flexibility

• Eat fewer processed foods and cook more homemade meals

• Spend more quality time with people

• Publish the 55th edition of RRR

• Reduce my daily phone usage to under 1.5 hours

• Consistently chest press 180 pounds for 10 reps

• Allow myself time to be bored (and relish the moment)

If I had to simplify all these goals into one guiding principle, it would be: "Get 5% better at everything you’re already doing."

Small, steady progress compounds into extraordinary results over a lifetime.

Wishing you all an incredible 2025 🥂.

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In Recent Times…

In an effort to be a better steward of my dwelling space, and to be slightly less wasteful, I’ve been using some easy and beneficial home remedies:

After cooking something that is strong smelling, or after I’ve cleaned the apartment, I’ve been putting on these simmer pots.

There are several beautiful things about them, but one of the best externalities is that you automatically become less wasteful.

If I have extra spices laying around, or if I have fruit scraps (cores, pits, and peels), I automatically start thinking about how I can leverage them to make the apartment smell great.

A simple one to get started is a lemon pot. Just throw the rinds and flesh of lemons you’ve used into the pot and let the steam do the rest 🍋.

Some other simple things I’ve been doing to optimize my time at home:

• Soaking some lemon slices in water, and using that water to clean the sink at night. It leaves the sink smelling great.

• Making homemade tea with turmeric and ginger root

• When I run the oven to cook anything, I also use it as an opportunity to further season my cast iron skillet

• I installed some hooks on the wall to hang hats, my backpack, an umbrella, or other things I repeatedly need to grab when I leave the apartment

What easy wins am I not taking advantage of?

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

The Latest in Ukraine and Crucial Elements Heading Into (Possible) Peace Talks 🟡🔵

If you're interested in gaining some perspective on the evolving strategic considerations in the Ukraine war, this video dives into the latest.

While I can't fully verify all the facts presented, much of the content aligns with reports from other credible sources, such as this article further breaking down the importance of the Pokrovsk Coke Plant .

Zooming out — I never thought we would see three years of this war.

While it is true that drones have been an important tool for the Ukrainians, I would have imagined that in the mid-2020s, wars would feature a plethora of modern capabilities, ultimately leading to swifter conclusions to avoid massive casualties.

More simply, I thought that technological and monetary supremacy would make fighting less-effective than diplomacy and negotiation.

It’s tough to believe we have been watching this slow-moving war unfold for as long as it has.

It’s also hard to escape the fact that there are entities which have something to gain the longer this conflict continues — with human lives as the fuel to keep the fire burning.

Khan Academy

I remember hearing about Khan academy some time ago.

I can’t put my finger on exactly how I became aware of it, but it stuck with me because recently I was asked if I knew of anywhere someone could take a free course on programming basics.

I immediately told them to look into Khan Academy, that I hadn’t personally used it but that I was pretty sure they had great content for free. Good marketing, I suppose 🤷‍♂️.

If I was going to start recommending Khan Academy, I probably ought look into it myself — there’s no way I couldn’t get some value out of a free, high-quality learning platform.

Just a few weeks in, and I am pretty impressed with the platform.

The courses do a remarkably good job of transforming complex topics into understandable and logical flows, where ideas and concepts naturally build off of one another.

I kind of wish all my high-school teachers were this good.

Whether you want to brush up on world history, mathematics, physics, or practically anything else, I can now recommend Khan Academy with more confidence than I did a few weeks ago.

P.S. — my first course was AP U.S. Government.

“I Will Never Vote For Donald Trump. Here’s Why.” by Ben Shapiro — 2016

In every election cycle, the establishment insists that we unify behind a candidate who does not reflect conservatism because elections are always a choice between the two worst options. They blackmail conservatives into supporting candidates who undermine the message and morality of our mission. Now Trump does the same. The establishment created the Donald Trump phenomenon with their “best of two bad options” logic, and now Trump is using that logic to destroy conservatism openly. The establishment doesn’t object to Trumpism. They only object to Trump. Strip the drunken boor antics from Trump, and you’ve got John McCain who will lie transparently to pander to the populist wing.

We don’t have to be complicit. As Ben Domenech is fond of citing, Alexander Hamilton once wrote, “If we must have an enemy at the head of government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible.” Let us not be our own enemies.

Now is the time to say no.

I came across this listening to debate on the “Honestly” podcast with .

Nuclear Fusion Power Plant To Be Constructed in Virginia ⚡💡

This will mark the first time fusion power will be made available in the world at grid scale. We’ll plug 400 megawatts of steady fusion power into the state’s electrical grid starting in the early 2030s. We expect ARC will create hundreds of jobs to build and operate the power plant. We’re pleased by the reception we’ve had so far, and we’re looking forward to more engagement with our neighbors and the surrounding community.

You can count me as “reasonably skeptical” as far as the early 2030s grid-ready fusion power goes, but there is no doubt that there is tons of nuclear energy momentum out there right now (for both fission and fusion).

Here is some context as to where we’re at with fusion as well as it’s unique challenges and benefits:

• For starters, fusion is when atoms are joined together vs. the already operational nuclear fission power plants which split atoms to create energy

• Ignition is one of several key technical challenges — it takes an absurd amount of energy to heat the fuel enough to start fusion reactions, though a major breakthrough took place in 2022 when net energy gain (more energy output than input) was achieved for the first time in nuclear fusion. Plasma containment is another challenge.

• Fusion reactions have close to “limitless” fuel. Deuterium found in seawater (which is already extracted commercially) is abundant and not needed in large quantities to power fusion.

• Minimal and less hazardous waste products with much shorter half-lives. Fusion works with light atoms like hydrogen vs. the uranium used in fission reactions.

Ultimately, humanity is headed towards an era of clean energy abundance. Technological advancement has been prolific in my lifetime and it is not showing any signs of slowing down.

As I mentioned in Junto Club, “I suspect we will look back twenty years from now, and the present day will seem like the stone ages.”

For more in-depth coverage on the state of global energy, and Mark Nelson recently released a couple of highly informative pods.

Was NAFTA effective at increasing US trade with its bloc partners?

Trade talk is quite in vogue at the moment — it’s a consistent part of the rhetoric from newly inaugurated U.S. administration.

Specifically, there’s been a lot of discussion and fiery exchanges surrounding North American trade agreements, tariffs, and even… territorial disputes?

In any event, it was timely that the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published a blog highlighting the way in which North American trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada has played out over the course of various trade deals.

NAFTA was implemented in 1994:

Aside from trade volume (and the interesting long-term trend of U.S. Mexico trade compared to the U.S. and Canada), it’s interesting to consider some of the pros and cons of this trade deal, especially given the time it occurred.

U.S. critics would likely point to the fact that U.S. manufacturers were incentivized to take on cheaper labor outside the U.S., but I think that generally lacks the context of globalization trends. The U.S. was always going to offshore production and labor.

In this sense, the disruption NAFTA may have caused was likely outweighed by the fact it:

• Made U.S. companies more globally competitive

• Put downward pressure on inflation, especially with year round access to a larger agricultural base

In any event, NAFTA was ultimately replaced by Donald Trump in 2020 with the creation of the USMCA. That agreement, unlike NAFTA, needs to be reviewed every six years.

We may be seeing new trade deals on the continent more frequently than we have in the past.

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Some Photos Before We Go 📸❄🦅

No “Rebounds” today, they’ll be back soon 👋.

-Tiko

*It’s okay if you don’t — this is a safe space*

BUT — let me make the case that you should try and get into the habit.

1. “Steelmanning” — that is, crafting or understanding the strongest possible form of the oppositions argument, will help you understand your own argument’s quality at an intimate level. It will illuminate deficiencies, ultimately leading to better ideas

2. It’s a good way to enhance the quality of your conversations and persuade others to see things differently

When we skip the hard, and sometimes ego-bruising work of making the case for the opposition, we rob ourselves of the opportunity to actually strengthen our own position over time. By successfully arguing against ourselves, we can find ways to improve upon the quality of our ideas.

There is so much nuance available that could disrupt the frameworks for how we think about the world.

Why should we shy away from that?

Well, many would argue there only exists so much time and mental energy.

If we deeply considered every opposing perspective, we could be stuck in an intellectually curious but deeply unproductive loop for most of our lives, never acting on our own convictions.

Additionally, some views have been so thoroughly debunked that engaging with them could be an irresponsible waste of time. It could even lend credence to harmful ideas that are better buried for eternity.

I can say many things about those viewpoints, but I can’t say that they aren’t in some form pragmatic. In some cases, they are absolutely correct.

Yet, that very impulse to preserve mental capacity and not stoop to the level of seriously discussing the merits of bad ideas has led to so many problems throughout history.

When dangerous schools of thought emerge / resurface, it is not sufficient to ignore them or even suppress them — more often than not, they need to be considered, debated, and blasted away by more compelling, thoughtfully conceived ideas.

Think about a meaningful conversation you've had where someone you respect helped to change your perspective on something important.

Surely, it wasn’t because they misrepresented your argument and dismissed it without proper consideration.

More likely, they demonstrated complete understanding for your position before carefully explaining why they saw things differently.

In Recent Times…

We hosted some family for Thanksgiving back in Connecticut and I signed up to make an appetizer.

Not only that, but I promised to deliver something a little different than what we would normally pick on before the turkey. Most years we have a charcuterie board, but everyone wanted to try something new.

What I ended up making was simple, delicious, and quite fun to prepare because it has a lot of room for creativity:

What you’re looking at are some phyllo cups filled with a few different cheeses and some assorted flavor enhancers.

The three cheese I used were:

• Brie (my favorite because its flavor profile leaves the most room for fun additions)

• Hot honey goat cheese

• Cranberry goat cheese

The cranberry goat cheese cups got left plain and simple because the cheese was so distinct in it’s flavor, I didn’t want to mess with it.

The hot honey cups received the occasional apple wedge and dollop of organic honey

The Brie, however, came in several different variations!

1. Roasted pecan with thyme

2. Apple wedges dusted with cinnamon

3. Dark chocolate shavings

4. “Christmas spice” crushed pecans

5. Plain with a dab of moms homemade cranberry sauce

I’ll definitely be bringing these back in the future because of how fun and easy they were to make.

All you need to do is stuff the cups (be gentle), add your toppings, and bake them for 6-8 minutes on 375 👨‍🍳👌.

I’ll circle back after Christmas with a much bigger food section here, as I’ll be helping spearhead a classic seven-fishes meal to welcome some special guests for the holiday.

Content of the Week - Pub Edition 🍻

My love for great pubs grows stronger with each experience. It’s each year around this time that I find myself wanting to slink into a good barstool or booth seat, and have a greasy meal with a Guinness beer.

That cozy and warm pub vibe is truly a beautiful antidote to the cold and dark of winter.

Pub & Kitchen - Philadelphia

By happenstance, I met the head chef of an incredibly popular restaurant in my neighborhood the other day.

As we were talking, he told me I should check out another place that he’s involved in — a pub on Lombard street.

The atmosphere was awesome. Everyone in the building was warm & friendly, the food was delicious, and as the night went on they played some great music to sing along to.

Not to mention, the double cheeseburger on the menu was a solid way to combat the soreness I was feeling in my legs after a long hoop session at the gym 😅.

The Pubs of London

Around this time last year, I would occasionally visit some of the pubs in the Hackney neighborhood of London.

I really miss it there 😢.

One thing that struck me about pub culture in London is that they close way too early. I remember last call at the Barley Mow being at 9PM one Thursday night!

It either forces people to call it a night prematurely, or get their beer drinking started quite early.

The typical bar in the U.S. that is closest to resembling a British pub is probably a “dive bar”, but those often times don’t quite have the same vibe.

A lot of dives I’ve been to are places to shoot darts and play billiards more than they are to share conversation over a couple of pints. Often, the music is too loud for that.

Yet, the biggest difference between the pubs of London and the ones in the U.S is your bill — it’s not customary to leave big tips in England for drinks, and a pint is much more reasonably priced than what you’d find in big cities in the U.S.

Pub & Kitchen didn’t have cheap beer…

Anyways — if you’re somewhere cold, grab some friends or family and head to a pub. It really does put a dent in that permafrost you feel in your bones during the winter time.

The Power of “No”

***Trigger warning*** — the thought of saying no to one of life’s infinite options cause me a lot of stress and even a bit of anxiety. Yet, that’s exactly what most of us must do to live better and more fulfilling lives.

“No” can be a bad word. It can mean rejection, it can be negative, it can be hurtful.

But it can also be a magic word, creating space for amazing joy and fulfilment.

I’ve been thinking about this a lot recently, as I’ve felt my level of productivity hitting levels that I’m quite happy with.

What was I doing differently?

I started accepting that saying no, sometimes to others but mostly to myself, was a prerequisite to ensuring I accomplished what was truly important to me.

When I said no, I found myself operating in acres of uninterrupted space, without a distraction in sight.

When I acknowledged that I’m an imperfect creature, who has impulses that actually don’t serve my best interest all the time, I started making better decisions about how to spend my time.

A new podcast dropped that sounds really interesting. I want to listen while I make dinner.

No!

How about instead, I focus more on what I’m doing in the moment, and allow my brain the space to have a creative thought or two rather than be preoccupied consuming endless information?

I suppose a good analogy would be to the pruning of a plant — cutting back certain branches to allow more space for other ones to flourish.

The fun part about saying no is it can and should also pertain to being “productive” in any given moment.

Life wouldn’t be much fun if we were hyper-focused on squeezing every ounce of accomplishment out of every opportunity we have.

Often, touching some grass or kicking-it with friends is the best way to spend our precious time.

Just remember, saying no is saying yes to something else — and saying yes is saying no to something else.

Air Travel Safety in the U.S. ✈

Any sort of plane related mishap is widely publicized and discussed because it appeals to our fear.

Let’s face it, there is something deeply unbelievable about zipping through the air at 500mph in a heavy metal bird that’s carrying well over 100,000 pounds.

It is not in sync with human instincts for safety.

But, while plane fear still heavily grips us as a society, I think it’s important to call out the downright absurd safety statistics associated with air travel in the U.S.

For starters, a U.S. airline hasn’t crashed since 2009. Look at how far we’ve gone since then…

I was not aware that no US airline had crashed in the past 15 years. And I didn’t realize what an incredible safety record this represents, given how many people are boarding flights every day.

More importantly, this shows us how very safe we can make technologies if we want to.

One key reason for the safety improvement in the US airline industry was the open sharing of data. US airlines started to openly share information about all incidents that risked passenger safety with each other. This made it possible for everyone to learn from the aggregate of all incidents rather than just the incidents each airline encountered themselves.

Ja Morant Knocks Off The Celtics On The Road 🔥🔥🔥

My goodness, I am so happy to see Ja Morant back thriving again in the NBA.

Last night, he absolutely took it to the defending champs and current favorites to win another NBA title, the Boston Celtics.

He did so in Boston, no less.

What even is that double (maybe triple?) clutch layup in the second highlight?

One thing I’ve been thinking about is just how gifted of a passer he is.

With just average NBA talent on your team, Ja Morant could make you a top five offense due to his considerable ability to handle the ball, at full speed, and make any pass on the floor while in full motion.

It’s all made possible by his unbelievable athleticism

Sure enough, just look how the Grizzlies offense is stacking up this year:

Simply put, Ja is the complete package when it comes to NBA superstardom.

He has the highlight reel handles, the incredible athleticism to make highlight defensive plays, and he’s polished enough to lead his team to play consistent winning basketball. He’s also letting the other teams hear about it most of the time 😂.

Oh yeah, and he pulls these dunks out of nowhere with regularity…

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

Every day at about 4PM, the postal service throws about 10 (I’m not joking) political ads through the mail slot on my door. I’ve also had four doorknockers that wanted to talk to me about my vote, which I don’t mind as much because it’s just volunteers who are eager to participate in the democratic process ☑.

If the NBA game I’m watching cuts to commercial, I get absolutely bombarded with extremist political content. The ratio of political ads to non-political ads has to be something around 4:1.

As if the attack ads aren’t bad enough, the craziest ones I’ve seen are not about politics at all…

Seems like a great idea… 🤢.

To be clear, we obviously should vote, but we should not engage in cheap political tactics which only serve to make engaging in our civic duty feel icky instead of fun or fulfilling.

*Update after originally writing this: The ad above was funded by a left-leaning PAC and it predominantly aired in Philadelphia, Detroit, and Atlanta. Guess it didn’t work too well…*

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In Recent Times…

I recently stumbled upon an insane AI value-add while managing my fantasy basketball league's keeper system. As commissioner, I deal with some pretty over-the-top league participants, and unique administrative challenges that AI helped me solve in an incredible way.

Let me break down how our keeper system works:

• Teams can keep up to 5 players from their previous season's roster

• Each kept player's cost increases based on a scaled tax system relative to their original auction price

• Only players you originally drafted are eligible to be kept (no waiver wire pickups or trade acquisitions)

• Your total budget for the next season's auction is reduced by your keepers' costs

For example, if I drafted Jalen Brunson for $30 in our auction, keeping him would cost more the following season based on our scaling tax formula.

Every year, I've had to manually compile spreadsheets showing:

• Each team's keeper-eligible players

• Original draft costs

• Calculated keeper values with scaled tax increases

• Acquisition methods to verify eligibility

The process has always been painfully manual since ESPN's platform doesn't provide any API access or easy data export options. I'd spend hours copying data from various ESPN web pages into spreadsheets before I could even write the excel functions I needed.

But this year, I had a breakthrough moment 💡.

Instead of frustrating manual entry, I took screenshots of the relevant ESPN pages showing draft costs, acquisition methods, and roster information. I uploaded these to Claude and asked it to parse the information into a clean text file.

The results honestly blew me away. Outside of a couple minor hiccups with similar player names, Claude extracted the data with incredible accuracy. For fun, I even had it generate CSV files by creating web pages with export functionality – Claude literally created a workaround for something it doesn’t have the ability to generate 🤣.

This little experiment showed me yet another way AI can eliminate mind-numbing busywork. If you are committed to reducing time spent on tedious tasks, you can pretty much always find a way with AI.

The fantasy basketball commissioner role just got a lot easier 🎉.

Content Corner WWII Films Edition 📖🎙📺

La Vita e Bella (1997)

Last weekend I hosted a little movie night and we watched this oldie but goodie.

It was an interesting watch because most of us had no idea what to expect. It started off objectively hilarious, but pivoted midway through to become dark, but also beautiful, at the same time. WARNING: minor spoilers below.

The story is about a Jewish man (Guido), who marries the woman of his dreams (Dora). When Guido and their son Giosue are whisked away to a labor camp, Dora follows them there. The plot becomes about whether Guido can keep his spirits lifted enough to use his sense of humor to keep he and his family alive until the war ends

The Pianist - Chopin Ballade in G Minor Scene (2002)

Again, minor spoilers below ⚠⚠⚠.

The prior weekend I watched the Pianist. It was my fourth time watching it, and I got the same goosebumps I always do when Władysław (Adrien Brody) lays down some of the most beautiful music you’ve ever heard, all after going through hell on earth prior to bellying-up at the piano — an example of unwavering human resolve and spirit.

Without a doubt, my favorite part of the scene is how the music nearly perfectly suits the thoughts that must have been racing through the German officers head as the clock was striking midnight on a fever dream of violence and atrocities that he has been a part of. The perfect backdrop for a dark and nearly final introspection, mixed with the unbelievable reality that he was witnessing in the moment — that he had stumbled into a decrepit war-torn neighborhood and encountered a barely living holocaust survivor that was now playing a masterpiece on the piano.

Apparently before the film was shot, Brody was intensely practicing his keystrokes to make them look more believable and as if he was at the caliber of the real Władysław Szpilman.

A must-watch film if you haven’t seen it.

Portfolio Management Habits

One of my friends and I are holding each other accountable on our personal investments.

For normal people that don’t invest for a living, the age old advice of sticking your money in index funds with low fees feels pretty wise.

But, because I have an uncontrollable urge to make my life more complicated than it needs to be, I do some single stock investing as well.

The reason that putting your money in index funds might be a better strategy is two fold:

1. Built in diversification so you are less likely to suffer crushing losses

2. You don’t need to actively manage and stay informed on several positions. You' can just bet on a group of companies / industries / economies and to some extent, set it and forget it

I like to invest in stocks as well because doing the deep research to truly understand these businesses and the industries they operate in, gives you a far deeper understanding of how business works. This has a ton of practical benefits.

Sometimes, it even gives you a better understanding of how the world works 🌎👷‍♂️🔨.

Don’t get me wrong — I still keep a huge percentage of my investments in low cost funds that track major stock indices.

Yet, I’m happy to take on the extra burden of risk and due diligence in order to continue down the path of lifelong learning 🤓.

Anyways, my friend and I are committing to the following:

• Every week, one of us will present the other with a research brief on an investment we’re currently holding and have a discussion about it.

• If after discussion (and potentially follow-ups), the investment holder still feels good about the position, they can move on to another holding for their next presentation.

• After we’ve done this for every asset we own (and cleaned house of anything we don’t want to hold anymore), we move into pitching the other person on an investment idea once a month or once every other month.

• We’re each only allowed to initiate new positions, or sell out of existing positions three times a year at maximum.

The idea is that:

1. We’ll get to know each investment we’re holding at an even deeper level than we did previously (or do enough research to see if our initial investment thesis is still intact)

2. Limiting buying and selling opportunities will help mitigate any impulse to chase a stock or panic sell something that we shouldn’t

Stupid? Unnecessary? A waste of time?

Potentially it could be all three, but we’re going to try it and see how it goes!

I did my first research brief on XPO Logistics and will be sharing some of it with the RRR family soon 😉.

I want to know — if you have individual investments outside of where you live / retirement accounts, how do you stay on top of it and try to make sound financial choices?

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Do You Have an Inner Monologue?

I was re-reading RRR27, and I wanted to clarify with you something that I wrote:

Here are some simple reminders I realized I’ve been telling myself lately when my mind is getting anxious:

• It’s dumb to put people on an unrealistic pedestal

• Outside of irreversible health problems, there’s nothing you can’t solve. You have the internet

• You probably won’t care very much about this tomorrow if you get a good nights rest

• Radically telling the truth (to yourself as well as others) will make you feel better

• You aren’t as good at this as you’d like, but if you are just consistent, you will be

As I was processing what I wrote, though I think it perfectly describes what I was thinking through, it struck me that the sentence about realizing what I’d been telling myself reads extremely weird.

I think many people, if not most, would have written something like, “Here are some simple reminders I’ve been telling myself lately…”

But for me, it took me a bit to realize what my thoughts meant, because I don’t have a constant inner monologue.

Essentially, I had a feeling that sort of led me to act / think / behave differently, without ever having told myself those things. Only after sitting down to write about that feeling was I able to put words to it. It was at that moment I realized what I had been “telling” myself all along.

I had a feeling I had written about this before, and look what I found in the original RRR “coming soon” post:

I am not someone with a conversational inner monologue. I’m really looking forward to putting words together to describe my thoughts on various subjects as they come to me. My belief here is that if I take the time to unpack my feeling on something, I can turn it into a fully articulate idea / view / curiosity, for myself at the least, if not the reader.

It makes me wonder if I would enjoy hearing my own voice in my thoughts consistently, or if I’m much happier this way 🤔.

The Cade Cunningham Manifesto: Recalibrating Expectations

When Cade Cunningham entered the NBA as the first overall pick in 2021, the comparisons were as lofty as can be. "Luka Doncic lite" was a common line.

In theory, just like Luka, Cade was a “jumbo” playmaker who could control the game with size, skill, and basketball IQ rather than explosive athleticism. While these comparisons at the time served to juice expectations and hype, they now cause many onlookers of Pistons basketball (oh… it’s just me in here?) to become overly pessimistic about Cunningham's development and future potential.

The Luka Doncic comparisons were always unfair.

Doncic arrived in the NBA as perhaps the most accomplished European prospect ever, having already won EuroLeague MVP as a teenager.

Cunningham, while intriguing, was a 19-year-old freshman who played well but didn’t absolutely dominate in college basketball. The expectation that he would seamlessly translate into an NBA superstar overlooked the adjustment period that most young players, especially primary ball handlers / creators, face.

Yet, Cunningham has demonstrated consistent progress in key areas:

1. His shot-making has improved significantly from his Rookie season

2. His playmaking reads are becoming more sophisticated, with better manipulation of defenders and improved timing on passes

3. He's showing better patience in the pick-and-roll, allowing plays to develop rather than forcing action

In addition to his development, the Pistons' recent offseason moves to add shooting and veteran experience are now providing Cunningham with a more professional environment to showcase his skills.

But as with the good, we are indeed compelled to acknowledge the ceiling…

While Cunningham continues to develop, there are legitimate limitations that may prevent him from reaching the absolute highest tier of NBA stardom:

1. His lack of explosive athleticism makes it harder to consistently get all the way to the rim and finish plays

2. Despite his considerable size, he hasn't yet mastered how to consistently punish smaller defenders in mismatch situations. He lacks feel in this regard

3. He has a high turnover rate for someone that also doesn’t have considerably high-level playmaking ability

These factors suggest his ceiling might be closer to a multi-time All-Star rather than a perennial All-NBA selection - and that's perfectly fine.

The modern NBA has shown us that player development isn't linear, and careers can take unexpected turns with proper combination of work ethic and opportunity.

Cunningham was dealt a challenging hand — both in terms of the expectations placed on him and the tumultuous situation he entered in Detroit.

However, his steady improvement and expanding skillset suggest patience will be rewarded. While he may not become the transcendent superstar many projected on draft night, Cunningham is showing all the signs of developing into a very good NBA player who can be a second or third best player for a competitive team.

The key to blissful consumption of Pistons hoop is to judge Cunningham for who he is and who he's becoming, rather than measuring him against impossible standards or draft night comparisons.

Despite not living up to what was expected of him in his young NBA career, let’s remember that in another situation he would be a player worth celebrating rather than criticizing.

Here’s a good video that came out on Cade just before the season started.

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

Something about the beautifully designed architecture, unique cityscapes, and seeing people outside enjoying each other’s company leaves me feeling inspired.

Gorgeous weather never hurts either 😉.

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In Recent Times…

I grew up a fairly anxious person. It’s not that I didn’t enjoy my childhood — I certainly can remember a lot of care-free times that were filled with fun and adventure with my friends.

Yet, from as far back as I can remember, I did spend quite a bit of time worrying and stressing.

I would think about the future, but I’d mostly agonize about mistakes from the past, and I would do so across a vast spectrum of topics. When I reflect on those moments, I sense that a lot of it stemmed from two main places:

1. My belief that everyone else was far more impressive than me

2. My belief that there were no solutions to my problems

Number two makes me laugh now — what real “problems” did I have at the time?

Anxiety can be a good and natural thing — there are many things that could harm us or prevent us from leading the kind of life that we dream about.

But mostly, it’s a waste of precious time that you could be enjoying instead.

Here are some simple reminders I realized I’ve been telling myself lately when my mind is getting anxious:

• It’s dumb to put people on an unrealistic pedestal

• Outside of irreversible health problems, there’s nothing you can’t solve. You have the internet

• You probably won’t care very much about this tomorrow if you get a good nights rest

• Radically telling the truth (to yourself as well as others) will make you feel better

• You aren’t as good at this as you’d like, but if you are just consistent, you will be

The last part is tricky — you have to dig deep and truly believe those words for it all to work!

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

Inside the Fall of Kabul, by Matthieu Aikins

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was a pivotal moment that dominated headlines, but many of us lacked a sober, firsthand account of how it actually unfolded on the ground. While we saw snippets of the chaos online or on the TV, we were missing the full picture of what life was like for those experiencing it directly — both in the tense days leading up to the evacuation and in its aftermath.

This article provides that crucial perspective, taking us inside Kabul during those fateful days. It vividly captures the mounting tension and uncertainty as the Taliban seized control, the frantic scramble of the evacuation itself, and the harsh new reality for Afghani citizens after U.S. forces departed.

By sharing these intimate accounts from people who lived through it, we get a much more nuanced understanding of this historic event beyond just the political talking points.

For those of us watching from afar, this insider view is invaluable for truly grasping the human impact and on-the-ground realities of the U.S. withdrawal. It's the kind of in-depth reporting we need more of to fully comprehend major world events.

Indonesian — Portuguese — English Translation Scene, from West Wing’s “The State Dinner”

I’ve been running back the West Wing recently, which is a show I truly could never get enough of. It helps that there’s a massive catalogue of episodes, but the writing is just so witty / hilarious I would happily watch the same episode 100 times. I pick up new nuances every time! Here’s one of my favorite scenes. Poor Donna….

Unfortunately the clip ends before you get Mr. Bambang’s beautiful critique of U.S. policymaker ignorance. If you haven’t already seen The West Wing, just watch season 1! You won’t be disappointed.

What’s Happening w/Threads? 🧵👚👕

It can be a useful exercise every once in a while to go a substantial period of time backwards and see what was capturing the minds of the masses in that moment. In my recent time travels, I came across Threads mania!

I hadn’t though much about threads since a couple months after it was released. I’m very seldom on its main competitor, and haven’t logged onto threads since it came out.

Rediscovering all the commentary that came out when Threads was released, and the strange moment that X is currently in, got me interested enough to dig into the data on MAUs.

Threads has way more MAUs than I would have thought!

The best data I could find regarding X has their MAU number near 370 million.

I suspect that Threads might actually continue eating into the lead that X has. The experience of being on X right now is shockingly poor compared to what it once was.

In fact, AI slop is one of my favorite new terms 😂.

Also, what happened to Elon getting rid of all the bots? 🤦🏻‍♂️.

Global Shipping Lanes 🌎🚢🌍

When you were a child, did you ever think it was miraculous how organized the world is?

As a kid, you have pretty limited perspective on human history and the time it takes for something to become mature.

I remember marveling at the rules of the road, and how airplanes didn’t just crash into each other all the time by accident.

One thing I wasn’t thinking about was global maritime shipping routes.

Oceans are quite big, and boats are relatively slow, so traffic control didn’t jump out to me as a modern marvel 🤷🏻‍♂️.

Yet, what I can appreciate now is how much coordination between countries and naval forces has to take place to have enabled the sort of mass movement of goods we enjoy today.

How much economic development and cultural exchange has been enabled by that level of coordination?

It’s stunning to think about.

What jumps out to you about the map? I was surprised at the amount of activity in Panama, the lack of activity in South America outside of Brazil, and that not much is happening in sub-Saharan Africa that doesn’t go through South Africa.

The Knicks, The Timberwolves, and the NBA’s Flexibility “Recession”

In a move that sent shockwaves through the NBA, the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves recently orchestrated a blockbuster trade, swapping All-Stars and reshaping their respective trajectories. At the heart of this deal: Karl-Anthony Towns heads to the Big Apple, while Julius Randle and Dante DiVincenzo pack their bags for the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

The Salary Cap

This trade isn't just about talent—it's a masterclass in navigating the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement. Both Towns and Randle, despite their All-NBA pedigrees, are seen as less than perfect assets that were becoming increasingly problematic for their original teams. Towns' contract, in particular, was a looming disaster for the Timberwolves. In the face of tightening salary cap restrictions, the nearly $60M annual salary Towns is receiving was going to massively effect their ability to retain quality talent in other spots on the roster.

While the NBAs new media rights deal will soon kick in and bump the salary cap much higher, we’re in what I would presume is at least a year or two of a financial flexibility recession. The salary cap has not increased at the pace of max contracts in the NBA which creates all sorts of problems. Essentially, when one player can take up such a massive percentage of a team’s cap space, it limits team building options. In the case of Towns, it’s hard to say he is worth it for a Minnesota team who will be locked into paying Anthony Edwards huge money for the foreseeable future.

By taking on Randle and DiVincenzo, they effectively broke Towns contract into two smaller pieces to preserve trade flexibility going forward. The Timberwolves' decision to break up a Western Conference Finals team might raise eyebrows, but it's a testament to the unforgiving nature of the NBA's financial landscape.

Minnesota's Calculated Gamble 🐺

By acquiring Randle, they introduce a new ball-dominant player who, while talented, doesn't offer the same spacing-appeal as Towns (who is one of the most prolific shooters at the center position in the history of basketball). This will undoubtedly require an adjustment period, especially for rising superstar Anthony Edwards who will have even less driving lanes than he did a year ago.

However, the addition of DiVincenzo shouldn't be overlooked. His versatility and malleable skillset provides valuable lineup flexibility, whether he starts or comes off the bench. While the Timberwolves may have taken a slight step back in pure talent, they've bought themselves what is likely a brighter future due to cap relief that will help them continue putting talented teams around Edwards.

New York's High-Stakes Bet 🧡💙

For the Knicks, this trade is all about unlocking new capabilities on the offensive end. Towns' ability to space the floor from the center position should create a wealth of opportunities for star point guard Jalen Brunson.

Yet, this move isn't without risk. Towns' massive contract adds a sense of urgency to the Knicks' championship aspirations. If he fails to elevate the team to true contender status—or if the issues that plagued him in Minnesota resurface—the Knicks could find themselves in a precarious position, forced to reshuffle their hand somewhere down the line without having achieved their ultimate goal.

Final Takeaway

Ultimately, this trade embodies the delicate balance between roster flexibility and win-now ambition in today's NBA. Both teams addressed pressing needs: Minnesota gained salary cap flexibility and depth, while New York added a truly unique offensive weapon to complement their core.

Only time will tell which team emerges as the true winner of this deal, and I’ll be here to relitigate it in the future!

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

Claude can then access that context to help provide helpful responses to prompts within the confines of the project where that knowledge lives.

It has been largely an incredible experience thus far.

That is not to say it is immune to the occasional AI gaffe — here’s what it had to say when I asked it about the best AI image generational tools out there:

😅😅.

The feature development happening with these LLM providers is crazy. I have purchased, cancelled, and repurchased subscriptions to many of them countless times to try and take advantage of the most useful features.

I get the sense that Projects was a big innovation. The ability to upload relevant context that can be repeatedly referenced in new conversations is an obvious improvement, as is the ability to collaborate with others in a single space.

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In Recent Times…

Have you ever spoken with a true believer in bitcoin?

Not someone who just wants to talk about the amazing appreciation of their bitcoin holdings, but an individual who cannot fathom why everyone isn’t at least 25% or more of their assets in bitcoin?

I was fortunate to have a conversation with such an individual recently. I had left most of my curiosity about bitcoin in the past — but this conversation re-sparked my interest.

When speaking with bitcoin enthusiasts, it’s difficult not to leave the conversation wondering what you had been missing out on all that time. It’s also hard not to leave the conversation confused.

So I fired up Claude to ask its opinion on the matter. It was a great conversation!

After giving me a pretty generic spiel on how the scarcity of Bitcoin makes it valuable, I tried to pry more out of my AI friend:

Me: What inherently makes something valuable just because it’s scarce? For example, rare earth elements are scarce, just like bitcoin. Elements, however, unlike bitcoin, have practical utility that isn’t reliant on demand for its existence. What makes a bitcoin inherently useful? For example, if global currencies are simply made digital, doesn’t it deliver the same basic value as bitcoin?

You're absolutely right that scarcity alone doesn't inherently create value. The relationship between scarcity and value is more complex:

1. Scarcity can contribute to value when combined with demand or perceived utility.

2. Many scarce things have no significant value because there's no demand for them.

Your example of rare elements is spot-on. Some scarce elements are valuable due to their utility (like platinum in catalytic converters), while others remain relatively worthless despite their rarity.

Bitcoin's utility: This is a crucial question. Bitcoin's proposed utilities include:

1. Store of value: Similar to gold, but without physical storage requirements.

2. Medium of exchange: Potentially faster and cheaper than traditional international transfers.

3. Censorship resistance: Transactions can't be easily blocked by governments.

4. Programmable money: Smart contracts and decentralized finance applications.

However, these utilities are debated:

• Store of value: Bitcoin's volatility challenges this claim.

• Medium of exchange: Traditional financial systems are evolving to be faster and cheaper.

• Censorship resistance: This feature is controversial and may face regulatory challenges.

• Programmable money: Other cryptocurrencies often have more advanced features in this area.

Digital currencies and Bitcoin: Your point about digital currencies potentially rendering Bitcoin useless is insightful. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are being developed by many countries. These could indeed address some of the issues Bitcoin purports to solve, such as:

• Fast, cheap transfers

• Programmable money features

• Digital storage and transactions

However, Bitcoin proponents argue that it still offers unique features:

1. Decentralization: No single entity controls Bitcoin, unlike CBDCs.

2. Fixed supply: Unlike government-issued currencies, Bitcoin's supply is capped.

3. Neutrality: Bitcoin isn't tied to any specific country or economy.

Critical analysis: The question of Bitcoin's inherent value remains contentious. Critics argue that its value is primarily speculative and based on the belief that others will value it in the future. Supporters contend that its unique properties give it utility that will persist even in a world of widespread digital currencies.

Ultimately, Bitcoin's long-term value and utility will depend on:

1. Technological developments in both Bitcoin and traditional finance

2. Regulatory environments

3. Public perception and adoption

4. Its ability to provide unique value propositions not met by other systems

It is truly amazing how thoughtful Claude was throughout our chat.

I peppered it on other things, such as the current adoption rates of bitcoin, whether or not it thought bitcoins design as an inherently deflationary currency was a good thing, the lightning network, and much more.

Never did it waiver in its commitment to complete answers, it never lost control of its emotions, and it was a great listener.

AI can teach us a thing or two about how to communicate with one another 🤔.

For what it’s worth, I still do not understand the value of bitcoin. I need to know how bitcoin would:

1. Become widely held across the worlds population

2. Unseat government backed currencies

3. Make its transactions remarkably cheaper

4. Protect people holding and transacting bitcoin from fraud and theft without sacrificing its decentralized principles

Yet, I’m committed to maintaining my curiosity, at least for now.

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

JFK and the Unspeakable, by James Douglas

I started a new audiobook (no, I’m not done with The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich 😟)

The book is worth a read not for its provocative assertions about a conspiracy to murder JFK (although, that part is obviously interesting as well). I’ve been mostly struck by the details surrounding the immense pressure heaped onto JFK to continuously escalate during the cold war.

Military advisors and various powerful governmental institutions were incessantly recommending increased militarization, actions that threatened the sovereignty of other nations, and even went so far as to push for a preemptive nuclear strike against Russia! 🤯🤯.

Increasingly, I feel as though JFK and his close confidants are a massive factor in the possibility of my existence 😅.

How do we get clean drinking water?

It’s insane to underestimate the amount of things that need to happen for people to have widespread access to drinkable water.

It’s insane to underestimate the amount of things many of us take for granted.

State Climate Summaries

Recently, I was taking a look at how the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is projecting and classifying environmental risks to various places in the U.S.

For most of the projections they give a range based on “higher emissions” and “lower emissions”. I would bet good money we will drastically lower emissions over the next ten to fifteen years, but I also hope to god I’m right! If we don’t, there are some truly horrifying possibilities on the table:

I personally will never forget the flooding that occurred in Philadelphia in 2021 due to intense rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The Schuylkill River was literally flowing through the first floor of our apartment and my buddy lost his car (it got swept down the street and destroyed). The scary thing is that the Schuylkill is actually not the biggest worry. Instead, on the east side of the city, the portion of the Delaware River that rolls by is an estuary 😳.

If these projections are remotely accurate, which I have no reason at this time to doubt, it looks like things can and will get a lot worse.

Let’s look at some other highlights — here’s a little word on California:

Naturally occurring droughts are expected to become more intense. Even if precipitation increases in the future, rising temperatures will increase the rate of soil moisture loss during dry spells, further reducing streamflow and water supplies. As a result, wildfires are projected to become more frequent and severe.

Rising temperatures also raise concerns for sea level rise in coastal areas. Since 1900, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches. It is projected to rise another 1–8 feet, with a likely range of 1–4 feet, by 2100…

Also, check out these rapidly increasing temperatures in Maine winters:

If you’re morbidly curious, check out the state summaries page here.

Preseason NBA Thoughts v.1

Hard to believe we’re a month-or-so away from the tip-off of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll certainly have more comprehensive thoughts to air out, but here are a few things I’m keeping my eye on:

Keon Ellis - Sacramento Kings

Lost in the shuffle of the elite western conference was a sneaky breakout season for the 24-year-old 2-guard.

The Kings had a weird-but-good offseason, adding DeMar DeRozan, a weird-but-good player to their already weird-but-good star tandem of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.

Amongst all that unconventional star power, the Kings surely need some more traditional skillsets to balance them out, and I believe Keon Ellis can be just that.

He has the potential to be a real “3-and-D” player, vs. some of the more theoretical ones that don’t shoot the three very well and don’t defend very well.

Welcome back, Ja Morant.

After the tumultuous period of scary gaffes that got Ja Morant suspended for the first 25 games of last year, a bad injury kept him out for nearly the entire season.

As a result, we haven’t seen one of the more electric talents to ever grace the NBA stage in a long time. That is probably a good thing, as he’s had plenty of time to address whatever was causing some of the self-destructive moves he was making. Any normal person just wants to see Ja healthy and happy.

Now, the stage is set for him to remind us all what we’ve been missing while he’s been out. Last year made it abundantly clear — the Memphis Grizzlies have nothing without Ja Morant.

That’s not a slight to their very respectable cast of complimentary players, but without Ja, the offense simply sputters into oblivion.

What are the Orlando Magic?

The Magic were a story of intrigue each of the last two seasons, and their impressive young tandem of wing players Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner clearly has upside from here.

Yet, they don’t have an overwhelming amount of players that you’d feel comfortable saying are long-term fits with the team. Jalen Suggs may be one of those guys, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was a great steady veteran to add in the offseason, but I’m not seeing exactly what the long-term vision is, unless they think Paolo and Franz is good enough of a one-two combination to take them somewhere interesting.

I suspect it isn’t.

In a Eastern Conference that is begging for another team or two to seize relevance, there’s going to be major disappointment in Orlando if they can’t make a serious run in the playoffs.

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Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

I originally bellied-up to my desk to try and publish this quick hits edition several Monday’s ago. At the time, I was planning on offering a little bit of commentary on the tumultuous state of financial markets.

I wasn’t going to warn that doomsday is coming, or anything of the sort.

Instead, I was simply planning on a moment of reflection — what must it have been like for people with their financial livelihood tied up in the Nikkei Index on that fateful day? 😫🤢.

The index shed over 10% in the carnage.

Fast forward to today, and you’re looking at a completely different story.

Where will major stock indices be a month from now? How about a year? Three years?

It was a brief and awesome reminder not to overreact to acute, “snapshot in time” events by getting too high or too low.

Slowly, over time, be accepting of life’s downturns while you keep moving up and to the right 😉.

Let’s dive into some fun material, shall we?

The Lancaster Farmland Trust

This may come as a surprising promotion from me considering my “YIMBY” tendencies. The Lancaster Farmland Trust (Lancaster, Pennsylvania) uses conservation easements to permanently protect farmland. In this case, “protecting” the farmland means the land can never be used for anything besides agriculture.

This means that when the landowner sells the land or gives it away to someone, the easement remains in place, and the land must be used for agriculture. The land can never be used for development projects of any kind.

As you will correctly note, that means no new housing on that land, thus, exacerbating the housing supply crisis we have, and making Lancaster a place that is difficult to access for new entrants (which stinks, Lancaster is an amazing place).

Yet, conservation of farmland is a worthy strategic goal in its own right. Agriculture is important, as is protecting our capacity to produce quality food (over-consolidation of agriculture capacity is not a good thing, and we should protect our ability to have a diverse network food supply).

Housing supply can and should be concentrated in urban and suburban areas more than in rural geographies suitable for non-residential usage.

Block Island

I felt compelled to post a small tribute to one of the most beautiful places on earth. Like Lancaster PA, Block Island features an abundance (in relation to the size of the island) of unspoiled land. Some of the highlight landscapes include dramatic bluffs which oversee natural beaches, and rolling hills filled with wildflowers and classical New England shrubbery:

The Block™ is a magical place to visit — the small island can boast that is has two distinctly different sides.

Near the port it’s quite busy, with shops, pubs, and a host of quaint inns to stay at. On the west side of the island, you can usually hear a pin drop. On summer weekends it does fill up a bit, but the west side, as well as the unkempt beaches on the south side can provide an oasis amongst the hustle and bustle.

It’s the perfect place to unplug — see if you can check it out some time. It’s quite easy to make a day trip of it 😊.

Operation Wetback

Yes, that was a real name of a real mass-deportation campaign that the U.S. government undertook in the 1950’s. It was one of the largest “repatriation” campaigns in U.S. history, along with a similar operation during the great depression.

Aside from championing a racial slur, the program did a lot to worsen the circumstances of the illegal immigrants that it deported back to Mexico, inclusive of sending them to places they were not from, not allowing them to benefit from any property they had in the U.S., and not allowing them to speak to family members at all before their deportation took place.

Notably, it also did nothing to help the American people. American farmers who relied on the labor force actually just recruited more forcefully from the border.

I recommend listening to this episode of Econ-102 from 26:51 onwards for a much more detailed breakdown of how this operation was not only a major failure, but an important moment in history we can learn from.

Back in Philly

One reason it’s been eerily quiet here at RRR is that aside from my vacation, I’ve been in the middle of a pretty intense move from Connecticut back to Philadelphia (the city version of the love of my life).

I may have slightly underestimated how much work it would be to fully furnish an apartment that I’m renting solo 😅😅. Cooking anything good is hard to do without cookware, knives, etc. — who would have thought?

Anyways, I wanted to share some of my favorite photos from my first two weeks being back. Philly is a city that many people in the northeastern U.S. don’t know much about, and it’s often overlooked due to it’s proximity to Boston, New York, D.C., and other popular places to live on the east coast.

I love how green it is in the summertime 💚.

Do visit if you have the opportunity — there are some amazing places to see, food to eat, and people to meet.

Homebuilder Cartels

wrote this thought-provoking piece recently which challenged my beliefs that the major impediment to greater housing supply was based in zoning law.

And it’s puzzling why there isn’t more construction. One reason, posited by a noisy group who self-identify as “YIMBY’s,” which stands for “yes in my backyard,” argue there are too many local rules limiting development put forward by annoying people that want to maintain the local character and high housing values of their neighborhood by keeping others out. And yet, just pointing at over-regulation in and of itself isn’t a satisfying explanation. After all, the collapse in housing starts really began in 2007, and it hasn’t rebounded. Something is wrong with the market, as price signals aren’t working.

It’s a good reminder that the housing crisis in the U.S. is multifaceted.

I would love to know what percentage of the labor force works in housing development today compared to thirty years ago 🤔.

Stoller gives many pertinent examples of consolidation in housing development that has tipped the economics of the industry out of whack — do give it a read.

But more recently, I’ve been working to optimize for enjoyment and taste.

Cooking on a griddle has given me the opportunity to do both:

As it pertains to the finest attributes of the griddle, there is much to choose from. Here are a few points of emphasis:

1. It heats quickly and evenly, ensuring that the food cooks as anticipated. This might vary depending on the brand - I’m not sure which kind I have. I inherited it.

2. You can cook a large quantity of things all at once. It’s no hassle if you’re making breakfast for two or three people!

3. It’s remarkably easy to clean. Once it cools down, cleaning it with soap and water works fine. If you burn something, a little powder cleanser will do the trick. Clean as a whistle.

It has me thinking about what other variations of cookware I might not know I’m missing… 😉.

In Recent Times…

I was thinking recently about company culture. Specifically, I pondered what makes the culture of an organization “good”, and what factors can make it “bad”?

In order to get there, I asked myself:

If, for a moment, I likened my life to that of an organization, what would I want the culture to feel like?

The first thing I came up with was that I should cultivate a high trust environment. To me, trust isn’t about keeping secrets or knowing that you’ll do something you’ve been tasked with.

In fact, I think it might be the opposite!

I want to have so much trust in my organization that we don’t need to have secrets. I should know that if I have to tell you something good or bad, you’ll react reasonably, and vice versa.

If I ask you to do something without merit, I trust that you’ll tell me it’s bad idea. I trust you’ll help me understand why that’s the case.

I also would want my organization to be a place where learning is not just encouraged, but it’s core to operations. Not knowing something is never a bad thing, as long as it’s acknowledged as a blind spot.

Additionally, for the organization to have a culture of innovation, we need to encourage the free expression and testing of different ideas.

A collaborative spirit is essential — are you able and willing to work effectively with others?

Finally, the DNA strand most critical to my organization would be that when we work hard together, we also need to have fun together.

After we help each other pursue our dreams and live happier, healthier, and more meaningful lives, we better celebrate it together.

What are some things you want to foster in the culture of your life?

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

Creating a Better Leaf, by Elizabeth Kolbert (2021)

Photosynthesis has governed the laws of plant growth (at least to our knowledge) for billions of years. Yet, it’s a fairly inefficient process:

Photosynthesis takes place within a plant’s chloroplasts—tiny organelles that are the descendants of that original captured cyanobacterium. When a photon is absorbed by a chloroplast, it initiates a cascade of reactions that convert light into chemical energy. These reactions are mediated by proteins, which are encoded by genes. Through a second series of reactions, the chemical energy is used to build carbohydrates. This requires more proteins. Photosynthesis has been called “one of the most complex of all biological processes,”…

Could it be that evolution has failed these plants? What if there were a more efficient way to grow plants without over-modification of their genes?

Stephen Long, a plant biologist who leads the RIPE (Realizing Increased Photosynthetic Efficiency) project, has spent an incredible amount of time and energy looking into this. He and his colleagues developed a mathematical model that helped them simulate plant growth accurately using all the calculations that happen during photosynthesis.

As a result, they were able to test and learn at a rapid clip:

Once his model, which he dubbed e-photosynthesis, was up and running, Long could create new leaves without the bother of actually growing anything. He could probe the weaknesses of photosynthesis and test possible fixes.

What would happen, for example, if a certain gene were ginned up to produce more of a certain enzyme? Would this accelerate photosynthesis or just gum up the works? The model would analyze the results of each virtual intervention, or hack. “Of course, ninety-nine times out of a hundred you’re making things worse,” Long said.

It was the hundredth hack that kept things interesting. Long found that, by rejiggering certain steps, nature could be improved upon. In 2006, he published a paper outlining half a dozen “opportunities for increasing photosynthesis.”

Among the people intrigued by the idea were some high-level staff members at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. In 2011, the foundation invited Long and some of his colleagues to Seattle to discuss their work. Six months later, the foundation invited the group back.

Long and his collaborators spent a week on Bainbridge Island, in Puget Sound, drawing up a funding proposal, and on the last day of their stay they presented their pitch to Bill Gates. In 2012, the foundation awarded them twenty-five million dollars, and ripe was created. Later, the project received additional funding from Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office and from the Foundation for Food and Agriculture, a joint public-private venture based in Washington, D.C.

The article also gets into other interesting work in the domain of crop resilience, such as the C4 Rice Project and others.

Solitude and Leadership, by William Deresiewicz (2010)

This piece is a transcription of an old speech Deresiewicz gave at West Point Academy:

I find for myself that my first thought is never my best thought. My first thought is always someone else’s; it’s always what I’ve already heard about the subject, always the conventional wisdom. It’s only by concentrating, sticking to the question, being patient, letting all the parts of my mind come into play, that I arrive at an original idea. By giving my brain a chance to make associations, draw connections, take me by surprise. And often even that idea doesn’t turn out to be very good. I need time to think about it, too, to make mistakes and recognize them, to make false starts and correct them, to outlast my impulses, to defeat my desire to declare the job done and move on to the next thing.

And on reading books vs. other “short-form” content (like this newsletter 😳):

So why is reading books any better than reading tweets or wall posts? Well, sometimes it isn’t. Sometimes, you need to put down your book, if only to think about what you’re reading, what you think about what you’re reading. But a book has two advantages over a tweet. First, the person who wrote it thought about it a lot more carefully. The book is the result of his solitude, his attempt to think for himself.

Second, most books are old. This is not a disadvantage: this is precisely what makes them valuable. They stand against the conventional wisdom of today simply because they’re not from today. Even if they merely reflect the conventional wisdom of their own day, they say something different from what you hear all the time. But the great books, the ones you find on a syllabus, the ones people have continued to read, don’t reflect the conventional wisdom of their day. They say things that have the permanent power to disrupt our habits of thought. They were revolutionary in their own time, and they are still revolutionary today. And when I say “revolutionary,” I am deliberately evoking the American Revolution, because it was a result of precisely this kind of independent thinking. Without solitude—the solitude of Adams and Jefferson and Hamilton and Madison and Thomas Paine—there would be no America.

The Necessity of Necessity

Have you ever reflected on another time in your life where you accomplished something big, and thought to yourself — “how did I do that?”

Perhaps it was a tangible accomplishment, like learning a new skill, landing a new job, or thriving in a difficult situation.

Maybe it was getting yourself out of a depressed or self-sabotaging state of mind over a period of time.

Chances are, you needed that moment of transformation in your life.

It seems to me that when we have our backs against a wall, we become more capable and willing to take risks, challenge our habits, and change.

Conversely, when you’re sailing the calm waters of a life without necessity, complacency sets in and we stop ourselves from turning into different and better people.

Abraham Maslow once said, “In any given moment we have two options: to step forward into growth or step back into safety”.

This is not to say safety doesn’t have usefulness in our lives.

Instead, we only need to be cognizant not to let ourselves relish too much in comfort, and iterate on ourselves from time to time.

NBA Summer League + Team USA’s Unconvincing Play

We’re well into NBA Summer League — what a strange installation it has been.

For context, here’s what Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer had to say about this year’s draft class before the summer league began:

Looking at this year's draft class is like heading to your favorite steakhouse only to find out they’re out of steak. Sure, there are still plenty of other delicious options: your trusted bigs, two-way upside wings, and guards who can cook up their own shots.

But there’s no Wagyu porterhouse like Victor Wembanyama last year. There isn’t even a consensus on which entrées are the best. Teams will need to make the most of the available menu items to find talent and the best supporting pieces to add to their existing cores.

Organizational objectives and philosophies will lead to more disagreement than usual on draft boards, and that’s no different with my own rankings. Lots will change between now and June 26 (and June 27, thanks to the first two-day draft).

Predictably, many of the top draft picks from the most recent rookie class of NBA players have not been overly impressive, with some of them being downright terrible.

On the other side of the coin, you have second year players that are clearly too good to be playing summer league. Still, hats off to them that they even wanted to participate and work on their game with some live competition.

Here are a couple of takeaways:

The Good:

• Second year player Cam Whitmore looks far too comfortable against this level of competition. The Houston Rockets may have an interesting dilemma on their hands given the abundant depth of young talent they have on their roster. There is only so much playing time to go around…

• Reed Sheppard, also of the Rockets, looks like he’s going to be one of the few rookies to be able to contribute right away in the NBA. He’s a key player for their summer roster and is playing within himself, which is a great sign for young players who are far too often looking to prove themselves.

• Stephon Castle — rookie for the Spurs who is clearly going to be a top tier defensive guard in the NBA. We’ll see how his offensive game matures, but his defense is incredible at the point of attack. Just ask the NBA champion Boston Celtics how important that is.

The Bad:

• Rob Dillingham, the 8th overall pick in the most recent NBA draft, shoots a lot, misses a lot, and doesn’t project to be an impactful defender. He’s currently shooting 14-51 (27%) on his summer league attempts 🤢.

• Alex Sarr, the number 2 pick in the draft, is shooting 19% through his first 21 shot attempts. Yikes.

Takeaways:

• I think the winning draft strategy for NBA teams this year was to take players with less flashy potential, but more solid foundations for how they could contribute to winning NBA basketball. There just wasn’t a lot of star power available, so securing average to above average rotation players will have proved a great bargain for most NBA teams this year.

  ---

Quick Look at Team USA:

The USA Olympic team improved to 4-0 in it’s international friendly schedule after squeaking out a lackluster victory against South Sudan 101-100.

Despite the overwhelming talent on the roster, they have struggled to hit their stride and play consistently great basketball.

From what I’ve seen, they look much better playing quickly, getting into transition offense, and putting pressure on the ball defensively.

Here’s what it can look like…

When they slow down and play in the half-court, the opposition appears much more comfortable.

Joel Embiid feels like a weird fit due to his playstyle, and I don’t really love the two-center lineups that Steve Kerr keeps playing. More shooting and playmaking ability on offense would be great.

I think ideally, come the games that matter, they would start Curry, Edwards, Durant, James, and Davis. Let’s see what happens!

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

After a glass or two of lemon water, I sit outside on the porch, listening to the birds singing as I shake off the morning grogginess.

Once I’m back inside, I brew up the perfect cup of coffee, and wash some fruit to eat while I listen to my 99.1 PLR playlist, or some other feel-good music.

From there, I take the cup of coffee into the home office where I’ll read anything that interests me for about an hour or so. Then, I get dressed and head to the gym for some stretching and about a 45 minute workout after.

Once I get back home and eat a big breakfast, I’m ready to spend at least three or four hours working on various projects, either by myself or with people who are partnering with me on the work.

In the afternoon, I head out for a half-hour walk and listen to my favorite podcasts.

After a light lunch, I might link up with some friends to play basketball or soccer for a couple hours. That leaves me exhausted and ready to cook a proper dinner.

I typically try to make one or two new recipes each week and invite friends or family over for dinner on those nights. I always shop locally and prefer to buy my groceries in small bunches - usually once every couple of days.

At night time, I might call a couple friends living far away, write a bit, and then read 15 pages of my latest book before bed.

My life can vary quite drastically from that routine, and it’s because I travel a bit to see friends living in other places, and to meet with people about work I may have going on in that moment.

I live in a super-walkable suburb with proximity to the city. Living just outside the city allows me to have space to host people - I love to host bonfires in the wintertime and cookouts in the warmer months. Equally, I love heading into the city as often as I can. It’s bustling with things to do and a lot of my friends still reside there.

In the summers, I host a lot of people for weeks at a time at my beach house. We take the boat for cruises around the shore and sometimes enjoy dinner on the water as well.

Sounds nice, right?

Well, the problem is this…

My alarm jolts me awake most mornings, and I have bags under my eyes until the afternoon on most days.

I am not good about getting outside every morning, I mess up my coffee on some days (although admittedly I’m pretty good at that part), and I definitely don’t work out before I start work for the day. Working 4 or 5 hours asynchronously on “various projects”?

I love my job, but I’m an 8:30 to 5 kind of guy who is definitely beholden to a schedule.

I can’t take walks on most days due to meetings, and my favorite podcasts suffer a little less listenership because of it.

It can be hard to coordinate sports as often as I’d like, I shop at Costco, and I don’t stray from what I know how to cook well often enough.

My friends might not pick up, or I might be too exhausted to call. Some nights, my energy is spent to the point that my brain isn’t producing creative enough thoughts to write, and I might even be too lazy to read my book.

I live at my parents house because with my remote job, it’s incredibly hard to pick a place to live. It is not “super-walkable” where I live.

Beach house? Lol.

But, I can dream! And if I can dream it, that means I can achieve it.

I don’t believe necessarily in the power of manifestation - thinking about something isn’t enough to make it a reality. But if I have a clear vision, that means I can also plot out the steps it will take to get there. Then, I can take action!

To be honest, I don’t spend enough time thinking about what I want my future to look like. I do try to take things a day at a time, and I feel like life is better when you live in the present.

Still, that doesn’t mean I can’t have some thoughts about things I’d like to work towards, even if those things change over time.

I bet I’ll read this again in a few weeks and feel quite uneasy at the thought of living in the burbs… 🤒

I already realize that family building is not represented in my dream life, which is a miss. I will definitely want that at some point, it’s just hard to envision when it feels so far away.

Have you spent time really thinking about what does / will make you happy in life? Is it going to be the people, the places, or the things within it? 🤔💭.

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In Recent Times…

How do you think about productivity? Is it tangible progress towards completion of a task or goal?

Or could it be inclusive of the less-sexy portions of the creative process, like good rest and successfully clearing your mind?

I don’t know exactly why, but I’ve recently become hyper-aware of how seemingly unrelated acts can support or destroy production capacity in my life.

For me, it’s usually by way of distraction that I derail from the tracks of prosperousness. For example, some of my better thoughts get cut down in their youth when my phone rings, or when someone comes into the room I’m in to start chatting.

Other times, I notice something out of place in the room I’m in that distracts my mind from productive thinking.

It’s also not always the “thought” phase where my production takes a hit. I could have great intention to knock out a task on my to-do list, but if I get that text to go play a sport… I’m only human 🤷🏻‍♂️.

Then again, physical activity and dopamine release can really enhance productivity. Think of how calm and well-mannered a dog is after a couple hours of running around outside 😂.

Probably, the most impactful change I could make to enhance my productivity would be to cultivate more quiet in my life. I firmly believe that the noisier one's life, the more cluttered the mind becomes when it's finally time to focus on a task.

That means we must resist the urge to spend every conscious moment we have listening to podcasts, reading, and stuffing our minds with more than we’ve adapted to handle. Maybe just a nice long walk without headphones, or sitting somewhere to be alone with our thoughts can unlock the hidden treasures that lay deep within our minds 💎🧠.

Content Corner 📖🎙📺

How the US is Destroying Young People’s Future, by Scott Galloway

I watched this a few weeks back and am struggling to remember how I stumbled upon it, but I’m thankful I did.

Scott masterfully gave a voice to the young people in the U.S. who may not even fully understand their social realities, let alone have the ability to articulate them so powerfully.

At the same time, he puts real impetus on adults in the U.S., parents specifically, to at least think about some of the problems that are very real for younger generations. These sorts of powerful messages that can reach large audiences is actually how change is made.

Scott probably activated the minds of the millions of people who watched his presentation to recognize that there is a problem with how American society is unfolding. That’s a great thing!

Severe inequality is what puts democratic ideals in jeopardy. Let’s not let it come to that if we can help it.

The Precursor Pipeline - Hearing from the U.S. Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control

It was interesting learning about how the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and other government agencies are trying to crack down on the distribution of “precursor chemicals” that are used in the manufacturing of Fentanyl and other synthetic drugs.

The hearing video (which starts at 15:30) details the key chemicals in the scope of the conversation such as Xylazine and Nitazenes, the operations that the DEA is undertaking to try and hold Chinese companies accountable for distributing the chemicals, and the international cooperation efforts underway to break up the current supply chains.

Particularly, I found it fascinating to hear about the complex financial networks (such as the underground Chinese Banking System) that support the drug cartels that are purchasing these chemicals.

Will Biden Step Down?

November 5th is approaching rapidly, and it’s already shaping up to be one of the most unusual, if not the most unusual elections in American history.

After the first presidential debate that took place at the end of June, genuine and legitimate concerns about Biden’s cognitive acuity have rocked the traditional incumbency setup heading into campaign season.

It is not normal to have political commentators and pundits calling for the sitting president to exit the race a handful of months pre-election.

Alas, I sat back after the debate and watched that exact situation unfold in real-time as people reacted to what they had just seen.

If Biden and the people in his ear continue with their plan to remain in the race, I am nearly certain we will get a second Trump presidency. Here’s why:

1. Americans have been flagrantly lied to as it pertains to Biden’s level of mental fitness for what I would consider a demanding job. There is no sense trying to get them to accept those lies again.

2. There is not consensus support anymore from the democratic base, which will not convey confidence to swing-voters to cast a vote for President Biden. Put yourself in the shoes of someone who follows politics very casually (like the majority of Americans). If Biden’s “biggest supporters” of the past have now openly called for him to be replaced, why would someone who is rolling out of bed and turning up at the polls think it’s wise to vote for him?

To be clear, I would certainly cast a vote for Biden if the election were tomorrow.

I am averse to Trump’s anti-democratic designs, and while I do think the American system is strong enough to withstand another term, I do not want to push our luck.

I also commend a lot of the policy that has come to fruition under this current administration. Things have gone well with Biden at the helm!

Yet, it is now hard to argue with someone who is genuinely concerned about the health of Joe Biden.

Nobody could be blamed for seeing Biden’s debate performance and thinking, “There is no way he should be serving as the President of the United States for another four years.”

I’ve been extremely unsettled recently by this thought 🧠🤔💭:

Avoiding another Trump presidency should be remarkably easy.

Just throw in a younger, sharper, centrist candidate, and it should be a cake walk to a victory.

Lots of people I’ve spoken to have expressed that it’s far too late to try and replace Biden on the ticket.

This sort of attitude is an attachment to the norms we’ve observed historically, but do not need to apply today.

I increasingly can’t see why it would be the case that people would happily cast a vote for Joe Biden, but not for a more spry candidate of similar policy positions. I do, however, see why tons of Americans would not cast a vote for Biden but would be ecstatic to vote for this theoretical new candidate.

A name I would love to see at the top of the ticket is Pete Buttigieg…

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Ecuador Photos / Recap

A couple of weeks ago I returned home after an incredible 7 weeks in Ecuador. I had the opportunity to visit parts of the country that were completely new to me, meet awesome people, and enjoy a much different style of life than what I’m used to.

An important factor to understand about Ecuador is that the mainland is divided into three incredibly distinct geographical regions:

You have La Sierra, the mountainous region that runs directly down the middle of the country from the northern border with Colombia through to the southern border of Peru. To the west, you have the coast. East of the Andes mountains, you run into La Amazonia. Each region has a distinctly different culture.

This go around, I got to experience much of the coastal region, including major cities such as Manta and Guayaquil.

Throughout my stay, I was reminded of what makes it such a special place.

It is a country that is largely made up of some of the nicest, most fun loving people you could ever hope to meet.

In the face of the current threats to the peaceful way of life that most present-day Ecuatorianos have historically enjoyed, they maintain their humor, hospitality, joy, and spirituality. Their culture is second to none.

Sometimes, all it takes is eating some Pinchos (grilled kebabs) and having a Pilsener beer to wash it down over some good conversation to keep enjoying life each day.

Each visit to Ecuador sends me home feeling more balanced. I have better ideas in my head about how to spend each day, clearer thoughts about what will make me happy in life, and more friends to talk about it with.

Thank you, Ecuador.

New Jersey Wind Farm 💨⚡

A major step in the approval process for a new wind farm off the southern coast of New Jersey was just made earlier this week:

The U.S. Interior Department approved the proposed Atlantic Shores offshore wind farm in New Jersey on Tuesday, giving a major boost to a project that would be the state’s first.

The project still requires an additional federal approval of its construction and operations plan, along with two state-level permits, before construction can begin.

There is, of course, lots of opposition to the new turbines. The better ones that I’ve heard have to do with risks to wildlife, such as raptor birds and bats.

Then you have some people just arguing that they are an eye-sore… 🤦🏻‍♂️. I actually think they are kind of… beautiful?

"I think basically this is a mistake. Nobody in the world is siting these large, newer wind turbines this close to the shore," Stern said. 

The group's prepared to go to court to fight the project, Stern said. He said it will not only create noise, but also have an adverse effect on wildlife and beachgoers. 

"The blades will be rotating. I think there's something about the rotation that can that can be very disturbing to the human eye," Stern said.

Yup, nothing more disturbing than the slow rotation of a wind turbine that is nearly 13 miles away from the shore!

Unceremonious End to the 2023/24 NBA Season 🍀

The Boston Celtics made quick work of the Dallas Mavericks on their way to a historic 18th title for the franchise.

I firmly expected a more competitive series given how impressive Dallas had looked throughout their run to the finals.

My biggest takeaway is that we’re entering a new era where quality depth on the roster is going to usurp pure star power. This could prove especially true given the new team-building restrictions that are being introduced as part of the NBAs most recent collective bargaining agreement. Here are some details with the help of AI:

1. Luxury Tax Threshold and Penalties

• Stricter Luxury Tax Penalties: The new CBA imposes harsher penalties for teams exceeding the luxury tax threshold. These penalties are designed to discourage teams from overspending on player salaries, making it more challenging for wealthier franchises to accumulate talent without financial consequences.

• Repeater Tax: Teams that repeatedly exceed the luxury tax line will face even steeper penalties. This discourages teams from consistently operating above the tax line, limiting their ability to retain high-priced talent over multiple seasons.

2. Salary Cap Constraints

• Hard Cap Provisions: The introduction of a "hard cap" for teams that utilize certain exceptions (like the mid-level exception) restricts their total spending to a fixed amount. This prevents teams from significantly exceeding the salary cap to acquire or retain players.

• Mid-Level Exception Limits: Changes to the mid-level exception, which allows teams over the cap to sign players, can affect how teams fill out their rosters. Lower mid-level exceptions limit the ability of over-the-cap teams to sign quality free agents.

3. Trade Restrictions

• Trade Aggregation Rule: New restrictions on aggregating salaries in trades can complicate the ability of teams to match salaries for larger trades, making it harder to acquire star players via trade.

• Base Year Compensation Rule: This rule affects how recently signed players' salaries are calculated in trades, often reducing their trade value and complicating potential transactions.

4. Increased Player Mobility

• Shorter Contract Lengths: With maximum contract lengths reduced, star players can reach free agency more quickly, increasing player movement and making long-term planning more challenging for teams.

• Player Option and Early Termination Options: More frequent use of player options and early termination options can lead to greater uncertainty and shorter planning windows for teams, complicating long-term team building.

5. Draft Pick Limitations

• Stepien Rule: This existing rule prevents teams from trading consecutive future first-round picks. Combined with other restrictions, it makes accumulating draft assets for trades more difficult.

• Increased Importance of Draft: With spending and trading restricted, teams may need to focus more on building through the draft. However, draft picks are inherently uncertain and can take years to develop.

6. Buyout Market Changes

• Buyout Market Restrictions: Limitations on the ability of teams to sign players who have been bought out by their previous teams can restrict the influx of veteran talent late in the season, which teams often rely on to bolster their playoff runs.

7. Two-Way Contracts and G-League Adjustments

• Two-Way Contract Limitations: Adjustments to the rules surrounding two-way contracts, which allow teams to sign players to split time between the NBA and the G-League, can impact how teams develop young talent and manage roster depth.

I expect to see more teams built like the Boston Celtics winning in the years to come. Something that looks a little more like 5 incredible role players backing up a star or two, rather than three stars surrounded by below average NBA talent.

Next edition, we’ll get into some Olympics coverage. Until then, I hope you have an incredible week ahead ❤ - Tiko

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

Let The Music Play - Shannon

Message In A Bottle - The Police

Your Love is King - Sade

I’m feeling thankful for many things, but above all else, the people in my life. Many of them are incredibly supportive (like you 😃), and they are also unreasonably kind. Yet, more important than the way they interact with me are the amazing qualities, talents, and wisdom they possess.

I’m lucky to have friends and family doing so well, and leading lives that I can learn from. Some of them excel in their professional lives, some of them have incredible relationships with their loved ones. They are patient, intelligent, and don’t take themselves (or life) too seriously.

I’m thankful for the many coincidences that brought so many great people into my life, and I’m happy to be living on earth at the same time as them. After all, our existence as human beings is beyond improbable.

While I’m on the topic of gratitude, I’m unspeakably grateful for my health.

I’ve spent two of the last three weeks fighting a really strong bacterial infection, which had one or two scary moments where it seemed as if nothing was helping solve the problem. I needed to see four doctors over a ten-day span to get different opinions on the best way to treat the issue 😷🤮💊. Many of the great people I was just mentioning took amazing care of me, driving me all over and keeping me as hydrated and well-fed as possible given the circumstances.

Now that I’ve been feeling more like myself, I’m back to enjoying the incredible trip that I’m on:

These are some of the photos from my first few weeks in Ecuador. I’ll be here quite a bit longer, and I’m really hoping to share some amazing content of one of the most beautiful places in the world. I’ve been bugging my friend Sebastian (the guy who appears in my “About” page) to let me get my hands on some of the photos he has been taking. He runs a media agency in Ecuador, so he has some serious cameras and equipment for capturing the amazing landscapes here.

Frankly, the natural beauty of the country demands a professional to photograph it properly. The camera on my phone is amazing, but I have no idea what I’m doing! Keep an eye out for more 🙂.

With that, let’s get into some quick hits. I’ll have some more time soon to get back on track with a plethora of full editions of RRR!

Yerba Mate - What’s the Hype About?

Recently, right around the time Andrew Huberman started discussing the benefits of Yerba Mate, there’s been a noticeable uptick in the popularity of the herb in the U.S.

Lots of friends were selling me on the idea it was a like-for-like replacement for coffee. For that reason, I politely passed, but definitely had some curiosity and wanted to try it. I think what had stopped me before was that I wanted to try the real thing, and not some of the cold canned versions sold in the U.S. with tons of sugar. According to my research, you need a proper setup in order to consume it the right way.

Well, thankfully this past weekend I met a new friend from Argentina who is a legitimate Yerba Mate connoisseur.

I was able to try a couple of varieties - one with natural sweetness, and one that was quite bitter. Upon review, the taste was quite nice. It generally resembled the experience of drinking a strong green tea, but with a flavor that was quite earthy. As far as the caffeine buzz that everyone had told me about, it was severely overhyped. I did not drink a ton of it, but my brain chemistry felt utterly unaltered afterward.

Anyways, I’m glad to have had the experience and will maintain a healthy curiosity. Maybe our paths will cross again soon!

Super Volcanoes

I just learned last week that not so far from where I’m staying, there is a “Super Volcano” waiting to erupt.

Five hours from Quito rises the great elliptical valley of Chalupas, an enormous caldera 16 kilometers in diameter, one of the planet’s seven “megavolcanos”.

As we pass Machachi, before entering the Cotopaxi National Park, we lose contact with the urban world. Without a mobile signal or internet, it’s now the winds, the wild horses and the great imposing snow-peak that crowns the Andes mountain range that accompany us on a rough road, where only the sound to interrupt the silence is the splashing of the puddles we drive through.

Marco Córdova and Edwin Telenchana, geologists of the National Polytechnic School’s Geophysical Institute (IEGPN), guide us into the wilderness. They know every stone we tread, every mountain we pass. “One of the objectives of geology is to discover our past to better understand our present,” says Edwin.

The good news is that it most likely will keep waiting for a really long time.

It is a supervolcano because it can expel 100 km³ of pyroclastic material, unlike a younger mountain, like Cotopaxi or Chimborazo, which spout only about 10 km³. But Patricia Mothes, head of Vulcanology Deparment of the IGEPN, seems calm enough. A year ago, a monitoring station was set up for the Chalupas and no seismic movement was picked up.

I definitely am thankful for some of Earth’s incredible landscapes and mountains that were forged via these events, but I hope we don’t see another massive eruption for a while 😲😲.

“An apple skin around a flaming behemoth”.

Perplexity Pages

perplexity.ai just released a new feature that allows you to “curate” (fancy way of saying sitting back and letting AI create a ton of content) information on any topic you wish.

I first learned about Perplexity through the newsletter, and have been using it for a bit of everything, but primarily, as an AI-guided search engine.

It’s cool to see that they’re experimenting with new ways to have users contribute to big content libraries (a cool feature of perplexity is just checking out the “Discover” tab. There’s a lot of different ways this can go, I’ll be keeping a close eye on it.

For now, check out this page I created about the benefits of being in nature, and this page about a couple legendary chess matches between Gary Kasperov and an IBM chess computer (Deep Blue).

Some Tunes Before We Go 🎶🎵🎼🎧

Leaving Rome - Jo Jo Bennett & Mudies Allstars

Thugz Mansion - Nas (feat. 2Pac & J. Phoenix)

Hurricane - Bob Dylan

Talk to y’all soon!

-Tiko

It started when I sniffed out an $18 dollar entree, The Hot Basil Duck, at a small Thai spot in town. They seriously couldn’t make it tastier if they tried, and they give you a ton of duck, cooked to absolute perfection.

Then, I brought you the Kiwi Market Inefficiency, and I am happy to report we’re starting something of a movement here in the RRR family.

A lot of you have started sending me pictures of fully skinned kiwis with bites missing, and it’s quite lovely to see.

Some friends and I went so far recently as to prompt various AI tools to write poetry about eating kiwis with the skin on.

Kiwi so green

fibrous skin

vitamins within

nature’s healthy sheen

😅😅😅

There’s a great Mexican restaurant called Ixtapa near my house, but they also have a bar in the back that few people frequent. It’s an amazing place to watch a good basketball game.

Both the men and women teams at the University of Connecticut recently had exciting runs in the NCAA tournament, and as you could imagine, people around here have been in a frenzy of support. There are few sports bar within the densely populated southern part of the state where you could enjoy a game comfortably - but at Ixtapa you can! We recently went to watch the men play in the semi-finals and were the only people at the bar. We got to enjoy some great food and cervezas.

Classical market inefficiency.

And now, for my next trick…

Rates for Airbnb monthly stays are incredibly priced.

Think about if you wanted to go away for a month - what would it cost you to stay in a hotel? How would you even go about finding a house or an apartment for an entire month rental?

Airbnb is obviously creating a ton of value by making it easier to find such places, but they’re also doing an incredible job of attracting more homeowners onto the platform.

The sheer amount of listings helps drive prices down a bit, but they can certainly be pricey after cleaning fees, etc.

Sometimes, if you’re staying somewhere for a few days, it actually is cheaper to get a hotel. From there it’s all about preference - I still prefer an Airbnb property vs. a hotel because I can have more living space, a kitchen, etc.

Yet, the magic of Airbnb happens once you want to stay somewhere one month or longer.

Here’s a month stay in Newport, Rhode Island, available for the month of September (at the time of writing)!

$2,900 after fees to spend a beautiful summer month in a place where the average home value is over $800,000 (according to Zillow).

Here’s a condo available in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, for $2,200 after fees that sleeps 5 (also at the time of writing).

Unlike the price of kiwis, Airbnb monthly stays probably aren’t actually an inefficiency.

Whereas with kiwis we’ve failed as society to educate people on how to eat them, it’s probably true that most people are not able to pack up and leave to live somewhere else for a month.

Even with the rise of hybrid and remote work, people still have obligations to get into the office, family members they need to attend to, and a host of other responsibilities.

Additionally, while the prices of these monthly stays are very comparable to rent or mortgage payments in a lot of markets, most people already have a payment. Sure, maybe the Airbnb price is even less than your mortgage payment - but that doesn’t mean you can take on the cost in addition to your current liabilities.

In any event, for the lucky people out there who truly can work from anywhere, and don’t have lots of debt or expenses, Airbnb monthly stays are an incredible opportunity. You can get to know new places, make new friends, and live in a way that truly wasn’t feasible even fifteen years ago.

In Recent Times…

Last week, I was back in Philadelphia getting together with a ton of my coworkers, visiting friends, eating delicious food, and enjoying some of the beautiful spring weather:

Many people describe the difference between introverts and extroverts along the lines of whether being with people gives you energy, or drains your energy.

I’ve been thinking about that a lot since I’ve returned home, because it doesn’t feel remotely close to my experience when I socialize, and I was wondering how many of you felt the same!

Being with people gives me a ton of energy, but I definitely need some time to recover afterwards. Being with people can also make me intensely happy, or pretty bummed out depending on the quality of the company. Depending on how you’re socializing, it can take time away from important self-care habits like getting to the gym, reading, amongst other things.

All of that to say, I don’t think we can identify so easily as extroverted or introverted based on how we feel during / after socialization, as it’s typically an incredibly wide spectrum of results based on a large amount of variables.

Whether you’re introverted or extroverted, socializing is incredibly important.

In my case, not only did I feel amazing during and after my hyper-social week, but it served as an important buffer for me.

When I spend lots of time alone, I tend to spend it seeking information and ideating on an endless list of topics. I’m easily interested, and I definitely get a dopamine hit from learning something.

Yet, access to instant information, and endless different types of incredible media leave me often feeling like I need a breather from such active thinking.

Being around so many incredible people definitely helped me to unplug for vast swaths of time.

Sure, I feel behind on my reading, my gym schedule, and I certainly didn’t eat the cleanest. Still, I feel much better than I would have had I spent the week in solitude.

Content of the Week - Philly Edition 🔔

Keeping the commonwealth energy going, I wanted to look at a few news stories coming out of Philadelphia. Not only is the city very dear to me, but it’s also a great microcosm for many of the dynamics that exist in other parts of the country, and the world at large. Seeing how these dynamics evolve over time, how problems are addressed, and how tensions between ideologies ebb and flow is often fascinating.

Mayor Parker Address’ The Crisis in Kensington

I previously wrote about Kensington in RRR8. Since then, Philly has welcomed a new mayor and to her credit, she seems to be tackling some meaty problems with a ton of vigor. I’m impressed, honestly.

Mayor Cherelle Parker signed three bills into law Wednesday designed to improve the quality of life in Philadelphia.

The actions ban gambling devices in convenience stores and gas stations, criminalize the installation of a license plate flipping device and mandate an 11 p.m. curfew for most businesses in the city’s Kensington section.

It was Parker’s first public bill signing since becoming mayor in January. On her first day in office, she declared a public safety emergency in Philadelphia. Parker said Wednesday it’s time to make the city a better place to live and work.

“This administration will use every tool in the toolbox to tackle the disorder that we have seen in Kensington,” she said.

How’s that for some commonsense reform? I had never heard of a license plate flipping device before…

Also from the Inquirer:

New Mayor Cherelle L. Parker, who ran for office while embracing stop-and-frisk and opposing drug consumption sites, won election handily. Since taking office in January, she’s solidified her rejection of some progressive approaches to drug policy, announcing that the city will no longer fund services that provide people with tools for safer drug use.

And earlier this month, Parker unveiled her administration’s much anticipated strategy to end the sprawling open-air drug market in the city’s Kensington neighborhood, where hundreds of people — many of them in addiction — are homeless. Her plan includes arresting people for such low-level offenses as drug possession and prostitution, crimes the city hasn’t targeted in years.

Philadelphia is far from alone in being a blue jurisdiction taking a more law-enforcement-heavy approach to public safety and drug policy, compared with just a few years ago in the aftermath of the 2020 police killing of George Floyd, which ushered in a wave of progressive policymaking and criminal justice reform.

The idea is that the choice between incarceration and treatment will push a lot of people struggling with addiction to get the help they need to get sober.

There is a lot of criticism that will undoubtedly be heaped upon Mayor Parker for this policy, The truth is that tackling such a profound issue is never going to be straightforward and easy.

I truly commend her for trying something. This is the kind of political risk taking that is not done often enough.

SIPS 20th Anniversary

When the glow from summer sunsets blankets William Penn atop City Hall, a rush of nine-to-fivers flock to the streets for one thing: Center City SIPS, the city’s most expansive and hotly debated happy hour.

This year marks two decades since the summerlong Wednesday night happy hour began, bringing thousands to Center City District over the years. For its 20th anniversary, SIPS is delivering discounts from more than 70 businesses, a social area in Dilworth Park with a roller rink, and the creation of its own craft beer in partnership with Broad Street Brewing.

Every Wednesday, 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., from June 5 through Aug. 28, many venues will be offering $7 cocktails, $6 wine, $5 beers, and half-off appetizers. Some restaurants will take 15% off your dinner bill after 7 p.m.

A free preview party will take place May 22 from 5 p.m.-7 p.m. at Dilworth Park, where SIPS patrons will enjoy live DJs, giveaways, and booths from Hornitos Tequila and Broad Street Brewing, including the reveal of Broad Street Brewing’s SIPS Summer Splash, a Mexican-style lager with lime, available throughout the summer at Dilworth Park’s Air Grille.

SIPS turning 20 is a beautiful thing. Some of my fondest memories in my early twenties are from popping out of work on a sunny Wednesday afternoon, and enjoying a couple beers with coworkers, and my friends who worked in the city.

One of the amazing elements of living in a city is the emergence of these weird types of cultural phenomenon. Who would have thought a city wide happy hour on Wednesdays would have lasted 20 years!

Cheers to 20 more birthdays 🍾🍻.

Making Knowledge Functional 🧠🏋🏻‍♂️

We have not yet realized that slightly above average understanding of a concept alone does not make them inherently valuable to other people.

I feel quite ugly having written that sentence, but I mean it in a sincere, non-jerky sort of way.

In the past, having particular knowledge about something was actually a net benefit to those around you. Technically, it still is a net benefit, but only if you couple it with the ability to explain it clearly to others, and use it as a framework to think through other problems.

I’m a firm believer that you ought to invest in the soft skills, such as verbal and written communication, emotional intelligence, critical thinking, etc.

AND / OR

become a true subject matter expert on something.

My whole theory on this is that slightly above baseline knowledge and understanding, while awesome to have, is easily acquired now via internet search engines, and can be made even more digestible with the use of LLMs.

For example, I have slightly above average understanding of how to write DAX functions, but I would be a fool to think that alone is some incredibly valuable knowledge to have for my employer. While nice, anyone can come in, study DAX functions for a few days, and have a similar understanding. They might even become more effective by just prompting AI tools to write formulas for them!

Instead, connecting the dots and knowing how and when to use the DAX functions if presented with a certain business problem, how to explain the methodology in a simplistic way (i.e could you explain it to a 5-year-old), and building a solution that solves the problem at hand are what actually matter.

So, yes, knowledge here is important. But, you need to be able to use it in a functional manner, otherwise you’re simply existing as a less comprehensive page of the internet ^{🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️.}

NBA Playoffs Check-In

Round 1 of the playoffs is well underway, so let’s take a look at some of the interesting things that have bubbled up in a few of the matchups:

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers defy the laws of NBA playoff games (Denver leads 3-0)

Game 1:

Game 2:

Game 3:

It’s incredible - the Lakers are roaring out to take early leads, and then are powerless to stop the Nuggets from overtaking them later in the game.

What’s even more interesting is that this is reminiscent of their matchup in last years conference finals, when Denver overtook a few Laker leads in the third and fourth quarters as well on their way to sweeping the Lakers 4 games to 0.

It certainly speaks to the brilliance of Nikola Jokic, who seems to be able to generate a good shot for his team nearly every possession. Still, it doesn’t quite add up that the Lakers can’t hang onto some of these sizable leads they’ve jumped out to. They’ve now lost 11 straight games to the Nuggets in the playoffs and regular-season 😳😳😳.

Here’s the Jamal Murray game winner that effectively ended the series after two games:

The Timberwolves on the cusp of a statement series win vs. the Phoenix Suns (Timberwolves lead 3-0)

Previously we discussed the blooming greatness of Anthony Edwards. He’s now arriving on the big stage, and he might have a good enough supporting cast to do some more incredible things this season.

Taking a 3-0 lead on this Phoenix team is not something to brush off lightly, but it’s the way in which the Timberwolves are doing it that is so impressive.

Their defense is proving to be amongst the more elite units we’ve seen in a while, and they have enough juice on offense, given the rise of Edwards, to win games convincingly.

Here’s Anthony Edwards torching Phoenix in game 3:

If Denver and Minnesota take care of business, it sets up a tasty round 2 matchup between them!

We might be heading towards a classic: NY Knicks vs. Philadelphia Sixers (Knicks lead 2-1)

This series has been tough to watch. I grew up a Knicks fan (and still am), but I do have a lot of love for the Sixers! These games have been physical, extremely close, and have a flair for the dramatic that any good form of live entertainment should have. Check out this insane ending to game 2! My jaw was on the floor…

I thought it was possible that loss, in that fashion, could crumble the Sixers. That wasn’t the case as Joel Embiid went for a playoff career-high 50 (!!!) points to lead the Sixers to a game 3 victory. This one might be going long, making up for missed time as the Sixers and Knicks haven’t met in the playoffs since 1989.

Some songs to end the week…

I Miss You - Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes

Paid in Full - Eric B. and Rakim

Corazón sin Cara - Prince Royce

See you all soon ❤️.

-Tiko

On March 17th, I published my first ever full-length essay in Junto Club #1, “Why I’m Optimistic About Humanity”. Check it out if you haven’t already.

Since then, I have not bellied up to my desk at night or on the weekends as much as I would have liked to in an ideal world. Sometimes, events in my personal and professional life sufficiently drain me of my creativity.

There’s nothing better than writing when you have panache behind your ideas. There’s nothing worse than writing when it’s an item on the to-do list.

For example, if I’m too mentally drained, how could I question why we collectively scrutinize epidemiologists trying to measure the contagiousness of COVID while we have nothing to say about deeply flawed numbers like the rate of inflation, or unemployment?

If you want to open the can of worms…

In Recent Times…

My mom is moving back into her old house where renters had been occupying it for several years.

What I love about where she lives is that it’s pretty much the only walkable neighborhood in town. There’s a great coffee shop, a couple restaurants / bars, convenience stores, parks, a pharmacy, and even a Dairy Queen (🍦) all within walking distance!

What do you value in the places that you choose to spend your time?

For me, I think walkability and potential for socialization are paramount. I would gladly cede space in my home for the ability to be on foot for most of my days, and the ability to see my friends in an effortless way. I’m definitely a city person 🏙🌆.

That’s not to say I don’t greatly appreciate being in nature and getting somewhere quiet. In fact, I think that every city-lover longs to get away.

It’s just that living away from a city starts to have effects on your lifestyle that become a big problem if they don’t suit you.

For example, there are few things in life that I hate. Hate is such a strong word!

But I do, truly, hate being compelled get in my car to do everything.

For starters, I’m sort of petrified of driving since the proliferation of distracted driving and general carelessness behind the wheel is quickly becoming a staple of American culture (cc: ).

Secondly, I just enjoy seeing people, getting fresh air, and exercising. It’s the best when all of that is just an add-on to the fact you are accomplishing something you need to do like grocery shopping or going to the gym.

What things do you like, love, or loathe about living in different environments? Leave a comment and let’s discuss 👇🏻.

Content of the Week 📖🎙📺

The Looming Tower, by Lawrence Wright

Last weekend I went to go visit a couple of friends in Bucks County, PA. As an aside, Bucks County is one of the coolest places in the U.S. - you should figure out an excuse to check it out!

We visited “Central Books”, a neat used book store in downtown Doylestown. I came across The Looming Tower, which I had read as part of my “Modern U.S. History” class in high-school. It is a book detailing the histories, factors, and the influences of the people behind the 9/11 attacks in New York City.

I remember finding it interesting at the time, and I wondered what the future me would think of it if I were to read it again 14-years later. I’m about halfway through it, and I already have a newfound appreciation for this book.

The book begins with an incredible deep dive on the life of Sayyid Qutb, an Egyptian leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in the mid-1900s, who was propelled to even greater status upon his execution in 1966.

Qutb’s philosophy had profound impacts on Ayman al Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden, two of the main perpetrators of 9/11, whos lives are also closely examined in the opening of the book.

Wright is also masterful in drawing a clear line between the six-day war and the resurgence of fundamental Islam.

I was also today-years-old when I learned that there is a TV series called The Looming Tower produced by Hulu that was released in 2018. I’ll definitely be tuning in once I finish the book again.

The Man Who Solved The Universe

I read Aurelius’ Meditations (the version where the language was adapted to be modern) a year or so ago. As you might assume, it’s quite a thought provoking book. Stoicism is really compelling.

This video does an incredible job laying out in simple and relatable terms what made Aurelius such a special person. They crammed a good lesson into fourteen minutes!

Egypt’s New Capital City 🇪🇬

I was surprised to learn that Egypt is building a new administrative capital city within 30 miles of Cairo. Apparently the project was conceived 8-years ago 🤔.

From Reuters:

Built on virgin land, the city is designed to serve as a high-tech model for Egypt's future away from the clutter and chaos of Cairo. The government wants it to absorb part of Egypt’s population, which is growing by an estimated 1.6% a year.

Though the pace of works appears to have slowed recently, phase one of the city already includes a 70-storey tower - the tallest in Africa - an opera house with five halls, a mega mosque and the Middle East's biggest cathedral.

An electric train from eastern Cairo began operating last spring and an elevated monorail is due to start from the second quarter of this year, Abbas said.

Up to 100,000 housing units have been finished and 1,200 families have moved in, he added.

I love the idea of investing in building new cities - but I am struggling with the concept of building one in the Sahara desert.

Landscaping has also begun on an irrigated, 10 km-long park, dubbed the "Green River".

A plant near the Cairo suburb of Maadi will send 800,000 cubic metres per day of scarce Nile water, starting in two years. A second, 700,000-cubic-metre plant is planned. Together the two will consume roughly 1% of Egypt's share of the Nile's water.

ACUD hopes to inaugurate a giant sports area, the Olympic City, with a 93,000-seat stadium, by the second quarter, Abbas said.

It occurs to me that in the past, cities were typically developed on land that was suitable for a particular purpose. Deep ports and rivers served as important trade routes, and economic development followed from there. The idea of finding a plot of land in a desert and deciding to build a mega-city from scratch seems unnatural, and of course, expensive.

Again, most cities don’t just get “built”. Long time horizons allow for demand to be met with supply, culminating in flourishing cities. It seems like the concept of “if we build it they will come” is opening the door to a lot of financial and quality of life risk.

That’s just my gut instinct - I hope that it becomes a booming hub of Egyptian culture!

Here are some super-interesting photos of the ongoing construction.

Dark Sky 🌌

Did you know Oregon is home to the worlds largest “dark-sky sanctuary”?

Earlier this month, DarkSky International certified a remote, 2.5 million-acre area in the southeastern part of the state. From this rugged swath of high desert landscape dotted with sagebrush, visitors who stay up late can see large numbers of stars, planets and other celestial bodies.

“It’s surprising sometimes to see that many stars all at once,” says Bob Hackett, executive director of Travel Southern Oregon, to the Guardian’s Dani Anguiano. “It catches you, and it makes you pause because you feel like you can touch it … That vastness of the whole cosmos up there—it almost makes you get closer to the people you’re with on the ground.”

DarkSky International is a nonprofit that certifies areas that have developed comprehensive protections against light pollution. To date, the group has certified more than 200 Dark Sky Places in 22 countries.

The newly certified area is called the Oregon Outback International Dark Sky Sanctuary, and officials spent four years working to earn the designation. They’ve implemented a lighting management plan that will help preserve the region’s unobstructed night sky views, which includes measures such as installing motion detectors and reducing the number of lights that point upward.

Additionally, every light source within the sanctuary’s boundaries will need to comply with DarkSky International’s standards within the next decade, reports KLCC’s Nathan Wilk.

This is definitely something I want to check out. The photos are just 🤯🤯🤯.

NBA Over / Under Check-In

As a refresher, here’s what I wrote back in October about trying to predict this years NBA over / under win totals:

The NBA, in my opinion, will be much harder to predict this year, due to the large amount of teams who will rightly feel like they have a chance to compete. When a team feels they have no ability to fight for any meaningful success, they often engage in what’s called “tanking”.

Essentially, it means stripping the roster of high level talent (or resting players), and looking to rebuild through the draft or by compiling assets (usually young players and future draft picks).

This year we won’t see nearly as much tanking for many reasons.

Primarily, it’s because the NBA talent pool is now such that it supports lots of parity in the competitive landscape.

This means that more teams will gravitate towards .500 basketball, where they win half the time and lose half the time. To determine who will win lots of games, and who will lose lots of games is now significantly harder than it was last year.

For the purposes of wagering, the o/u lines are set very similarly for lots of teams, especially in the Western Conference.

Well, after nearly doubling my small dollar figure last season, sure enough, I am looking at just about 30% returns on this season. I’ll take it!

I can thank my high-conviction predictions for the good results, because I didn’t fare quite as good elsewhere. Here’s where success was realized:

• Indiana Pacers over 37.5 wins

• Indiana Pacers over 41.5 wins

• Memphis Grizzlies under 45.5 wins

• Memphis Grizzlies under 42.5 wins

• Dallas Mavericks over 44.5 wins

• Dallas Mavericks under 6.5 seed in the Western Conference

  1. This means they will finish in 6th place or better

• Toronto Raptors under 36.5 wins

• Toronto Raptors over 10.5 seed in the Eastern Conference

  1. This means they will finish in 11th place or worse

• Philadelphia 76ers under 49.5 wins

  1. Sincere apologies to our strong Philadelphia cohort here in RRR… 😅

With that out of the way, we soon turn our eyes towards the playoffs which begin in almost exactly two weeks. I’ll definitely write a primer on that, but in the meantime, I want to share a beautiful video of what’s been going on in the NBA. The level of play has gotten ridiculous, which I guess makes sense. It’s a professional sport where they players and coaches all make too much money 😂.

That’s it for this week - but before I go, let me leave you with some songs:

Mas Que Nada - Sergio Mendes and the Black Eyed Peas (if you have never ever listened to one of my song recommendations, let it be this one 🙏🏻).

He’s the Greatest Dancer - Sister Sledge

Pon Pon - Khruangbin (requires a good pair of headphones or speakers to get the full effect)

Cheers, everyone :).

Of course, quickly disregarding positives and obsessing over negatives is clockwork in human nature, no less predictable than the rising and setting of the sun each day. Think about a time something great has happened to you, did you spend an appropriate time appreciating it? Or, more likely, did you find yourself quickly moving onto the next worry in your list of woes? Of course, there is good reason for this in human evolution, but it does not serve us when we’re trying to make educated guesses about the direction of humanity. I’m here before you to argue that the proverbial cat is indeed out of the bag - human progress has reached the point where it cannot be sufficiently contained.

Before continuing, I ask you to keep two things in mind:

• A principle of improvement is that things often must become worse before they get better; there are real, hard to eradicate risks facing humanity that will strike blows to quality of life, and life itself, in many parts of the globe. This is true throughout history and will continue to be true in the foreseeable future. I do not want to pretend like everything will be rosy from here on out.

• I have to ignore extinction level events that are unforeseen and impossible to predict. For example, there is a non-zero chance that the destruction of the earth happens before we’re able to become interplanetary / intergalactic. In that case, you got me. Human progress would definitely stop.

With that out of the way, let’s dive into the information we do have on hand to try and make an accurate prediction about our collective future.

Human History: A Story of Progress

When evaluating the probabilities of what might happen in the future, we often use the past to offer us clues.

• When trying to forecast sales, one must look backwards to observe sales trends, seasonality, and other unique patterns.

• When trying to predict the weather, forecasters use historical data to make an informed decision.

If my goal here is to predict what the future of humanity has in store, I must look at its track record of performance and pull out key insights.

If humanity were a publicly traded company, what would be the meaningful KPIs that it delivers to investors making a bet on its future?

Let’s have a look at global poverty from 1820-2018:

Here’s a chart of life expectancy from 1770-2021:

Here’s GDP per capita since 1960:

What about world literacy rates?

Of course, I don’t mean to suggest these are the only measures of human flourishing. Indeed, the world peace index has trended in a bad direction for much of the last two decades, strongly indicating that not all in the world is peachy. Again, there are real problems that we need to wrestle with in the here and now.

I only mean to show that over the course of recorded history, things have generally trended in a good direction. What amazes me about the human story, is that societal progression has in fact been in spite of major impediments. War, plague, famine, and a host of other issues have not been kind to humanity, yet we’re better off today than we have been.

Rate of Innovation In Technology and Science

When examining recorded human history, innovation is a pervasive theme.

It’s important to contextualize the utterly massive impact that singular inventions can have on humanity. Think about the breakthroughs of modern agriculture, and simple machines. Ponder later inventions, such as the printing press, electricity, cars, antibiotics, aviation, and the internet.

With that context in mind, consider that the rate of innovation is increasing rapidly. We create new, and beneficial things at a pace today that is truly unique in our history:

I suspect we will look back twenty years from now, and the present day will seem like the stone ages.

We are on the cusp of truly game-changing innovation at scale in many different domains that are central to human prosperity.

• In health, we are making breakthroughs in the R&D of cell therapy, gene therapy, inverse vaccines, amongst other things.

• In energy, we are unlocking transformative potential in battery tech, nuclear fusion, and carbon capture. All of these could provide immense benefit to our lived environment.

• The advancement of 3D printing, as well as the exciting potential of manufacturing in space, can redefine industry and its relationship to human flourishing.

• We’re currently launching satellites into space to provide broadband internet access to underserved parts of the globe.

• Generative AI is changing how people work and the rate at which informational assets can be created and processed

The ramification of each one of these breakthroughs can not be understated. Additionally, it should be mentioned that the aforementioned innovations are not a carefully curated list! It’s back-of-the-napkin work, speaking to the volume of innovation in human society.

Artificial Evolution

The internet is ushering in a new era of human intelligence that I call Artificial Evolution. What I mean is that the human mind has potential to start developing at a rate that seems faster than what should be possible given evolutionary constraints. It won’t be that evolutionary processes will actually speed up (at least, to my knowledge), but the ability of every human that is living to access information and learn is currently magnitudes ahead of generations before them.

A common trope we hear frequently is how “everyone thinks they’re an expert”. Indeed, one cannot achieve true expertise in a field of study or domain of knowledge with a week or two of reading about it or listening to podcasts. However, one can effectively transition from functionally zero knowledge, to more knowledgeable than most in a short amount of time if using the internet correctly. Importantly, one may have learned enough to factor new knowledge into one or more decision making processes in the future. If this power is harnessed appropriately, it enables certain phenomenon in society that were unimaginable before:

• Large quantities of people working on multiple projects across disciplines throughout their lifetime

• A proliferation of informed decision making

• Democratization of information, resources, and opportunities

• More focus on cultural and physical well-being, since traditional education will be enhanced with technology

The internet is going to build better and smarter human beings. No, the current model is not yet working in this manner entirely. For example, the vast majority of people are using the internet for entertainment, and unfortunately, as a sort of drug to keep their minds occupied.

However, as society starts to realize this problem (and we certainly have started), we’re going to build technology in a more human-friendly way. Technology of tomorrow will be far more additive than it is conflicting with human nature and culture.

I predict we’ll see measures of human intelligence rise faster in the next 50 years than they have the last 50 years. That’s no small prediction given the trend we’ve been on.

Collective Conscience and the Era of Nuance

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the whole world watched it happen in real-time. People were reacting, very publicly and negatively, to the human tragedy that was taking place.

That pivotal moment struck me, because it was the first moment in which I realized humanity was developing a collective conscience. I also imagined that during large scale invasions of the past (I’ve been fortunate not to live through many in my lifetime), narratives were controlled to an extent that is suboptimal for humanity. Instead of being able to react to a plethora of information, people were being spoon-fed a playbook for how they should react through one or two information sources.

In my introductory paragraph, I eluded to how our newly formed collective conscious is a bit young and under-developed. One way to prove this is to notice how once a consensus starts forming, counter-narratives are constantly born out of thin air. These contrarian views are not always conceived thoughtfully, or on the basis of their merit. For example, when considering the war in Ukraine, the truth is that Russia invaded a sovereign nation and started a war that is causing bloodshed. Their basis for doing so is impossible to justify. Why is it that a non-negligible portion of society feels as though Russia is justified? As humans, we often leap to harmful conclusions, and back those conclusions emotionally due to oversimplification and unhealthy societal norms.

However, with time will come greater learnings, and I am staunchly of the belief that those learnings are happening rapidly. One thing that couldn’t be clearer is that narrative control, contrarianism, and oversimplification, for their own sake are ineffective. This is opening the door to nuance, which has always been there waiting patiently to take the main stage.

While we are indeed living through an era of bite-sized info, where soundbites and short videos seem to win out on our collective attention spans, there has been a quiet resurgence of long-form content. I’ve listened to double digit podcasts in the last two years in which people much more well-informed than I have discussed the Ukraine war from many angles. Access to that level of information was simply impossible in the past!

Platforms like Substack and others are creating a new forum for idea exchange and conversation, the antidote to toxic, fast-info culture. I believe we’re in the earliest stages of society learning how to digest unfathomable access to information. This diet will certainly include a heaping portion of long, complete pieces of information and important context. It will include a heaping portion of nuance.

Let’s Focus On Culture

If there were one societal domain that would enable faster progress in all other facets of humanity, it’s our culture. Of course, human culture cannot be singularly defined, as we are split into nearly infinite groups that have at least some substantial differences in our norms, spirituality, attitudes, and how we socialize.

Yet, there are some elements that are pervasive across a vast number of sub-cultures, and we would be wise to focus on improving upon them:

• Religious extremism - imposing societally problematic customs onto others who don’t share your religious views

• Intolerance - being generally unagreeable and even acting maliciously to people who are different than you

• Oversimplification - not getting to the truth because you have stripped away nuance from a subject in an attempt to create a simple framework for understanding the problem. Simplifying is not inherently bad, oversimplifying is

• Tribalism - also not inherently bad, but done often solely to meet our desire to be part of a group. Sometimes, this leads us to be involved with dangerous groups.

• Loyalty to our beliefs - characterized by an inability to change our mind when presented with new / better information

To be sure, there are many other cultural ills that are more harmful than they are helpful to a modern society. In an effort not to unearth a problem without offering possible paths forward, let me attempt to answer the question, “how do we improve societal culture?”

I’ve thought long and hard about this question many times, and there are truthfully a few answers that might be useful. When I spend enough time playing out the possibilities, the best choice answer seems to be that we need to attack the problem granularly. I mean really granularly.

The power of individual conversation and fully formed thought expression is something that deserves more credit for its ability to inspire large amounts of change. Playing out your ideas for cultural improvement in real time with your friends and family, even when they vehemently disagree with you, is the exact kind of magic we need. If we’re going to seize the opportunity in front of us and create human utopia, it can’t start from a foundation in which we shy away from important conversations about how to improve.

As a thought experiment, say you were tasked with changing the mind of someone who believes that a certain race of human beings were inherently dangerous. Would you have a better chance of accomplishing this by tweeting about it, or having a series of conversations with them face-to-face?

I’m not advocating that we spend our short lives trying to change the mind of everyone who disagrees with us or harbors dangerous beliefs. However, I am advocating that we don’t shy away from the opportunity when it’s presented, or isolate ourselves from difficult conversations. To that end, we should also constantly challenge our own ideas about what aspects of culture are unhealthy.

To those who would argue that this sort of cultural change is impossible, ask yourself what your opinion would have been during a period of great humanitarian distress, such as the crusades where it’s estimated well over a million people died due to religious extremism? What would your stance have been during either of the world wars?

At times, it does seem as if humanity can’t get out of it’s own way. Yet, we continue to arrive at new heights over the long-run, and we find ourselves in a moment of transformational potential for the quality of our lives.

In the end, humanity itself may be one of the best examples we have of non-linear progress. Just as we must weather through difficult moments in each of our lives, the same approach must be taken collectively. We haven’t proven to possess the ability to stop human suffering completely and without exception. Honestly, we haven’t come very close.

Yet, while we should be sad about the negative aspects of humanity that are present, we should allow optimism of the future to spur us along the path of societal transformation. It’s only when we lose hope of better days that we stop taking the steps necessary to get there. If I could leave this essay with one dying wish, it’s that we all take time to properly marvel at societal advancement throughout recorded history. When we take full stock of how far we’ve come, it becomes clear how far we can still go.

I would have thought Mongolia was much higher…

How about Kazakhstan in the top 10? That really surprised me. For good measure they also have over 19M people 😮😮😮.

Some more things to know about Kazakhstan and it’s economic situation are here.

Reading about other countries with huge amounts of land and people helps add context in my mind for just how big the world is.

Another such thing that helped me consider the scale of our planet; I work with some folks in Malaysia and recently started looking into how I would get to Kuala Lumpur if I wanted to visit.

I’m not all that accustomed to seeing “d” in the estimated travel time 😂.

In Recent Times…

What a couple of weeks it’s been. I’ve been struggling mightily to find some quiet time 😪. It feels like to compensate for how much time I’ve had to spend being “on”, I’ve sort of been cruising on low power mode. Not my favorite way to operate!

In any event, since the last time you’ve heard from me, I’ve learned how to ski in a cold version of trial by fire. Let’s call it trial by ice 🥶🥶🧊. My thought is that some sort of winter sport / outdoor activity can help me a lot during the cold months.

I’ve also started a new basketball league that seems to be super competitive. It’s giving me a ton of inspiration to work on my game and unlock new athleticism.

It feels really nice to have these sorts of mini-goals in my life. It adds some commonsense structure to my free-time while also supplying the important ups and downs of non-linear progress.

Yes, progress should not just be a straight arrow from A to B. This framework is important to remember.

If you’re someone who’s scared of “failure”, the inevitable half-steps backwards are going to repel you from what needs to be done to make progress in your endeavors. Embracing some adversity has transformative potential 🚀🚀.

Content of the Week 📖🎙📺

“The Intellectual Obesity Crisis” by

You know a piece of writing is great when every last word is resonating at full voltage in your soul.

One of the core concepts I’ve internalized for a long time without putting a name on it, is what Gurwinder calls, “junk info”.

Like fast food, junk info is cheap to produce and satisfying to consume, but high in additives and low in nutrition. It's also potentially addictive and, if consumed excessively, highly dangerous.

Junk info is often false info, but it isn't junk because it's false. It's junk because it has no practical use; it doesn't make your life better, and it doesn't improve your understanding. Even lies can be nourishing; the works of Dostoevsky are fiction, yet can teach you more about humans than any psychology textbook. Meanwhile, most verified facts do nothing to improve your life or understanding, and are, to paraphrase Nietzsche, as useful as knowledge of the chemical composition of water to someone who is drowning.

What’s scary, in my opinion, is that junk info can be disguised as helpful, and well-capable of improving your understanding of something. Not disguised in the sense that it’s false, but disguised in the sense that you personally have no meaningful way of applying the knowledge to create value for yourself or others.

What’s worse, is there are only imperfect methods of knowing what information will eventually be useful to you! The sheer horror…

Please read the whole thing, it is so timely.

My Top 5 Ski Runs of 2023 - GoPro POV [4K] by Abe Kislevitz

When he asks, “are you kidding me” to start the first run, I felt like I was on an episode of MTV’s Punked. Is he kidding us?

I cannot believe that people actually do this stuff, but nonetheless, I’m happy he survived and put it on YouTube for our enjoyment.

Think about the non-linear progress (AKA broken bones and pain) that must go into building the confidence to execute these runs at speed! When he turns the camera around on the replay of the last run you can get even more appreciation for the speed he picks up at certain junctures…

How Infrastructure Shapes History - Canadian Pacific Rail 🍁🚂

I was listening to Bill Ackman on the Lex Fridman Podcast earlier this week, and he made a comment that drew my curiosity. Without quoting directly, it was along the lines of how Canadian Pacific (a company of which Ackman’s Pershing Square owns a significant portion) forged an important part of North American history.

After some research, what seemed like an incredibly profound and even bold statement now feels rather obvious.

Like many great infrastructure projects, the development of the railways over time attracted huge scores of workers from different parts of the world, shaping part of the Canadian economy as well as its culture.

The building of the railways were also a key driver of rapid population growth of the Prarie Provinces in the early 20th century.

The completion of the rail also fulfilled a key condition allowing British Columbia to join the rest of Canada.

I enjoyed learning about the development of Canadian Pacific. It got me excited because I feel an important shift happening, at least here in the U.S. - there is a growing desire to build impactful infrastructure.

If Canadian Pacific is a canary in the coalmine of how infrastructure can shape history, I feel that important history could be starting to form in this very moment.

Recommendation: by

I’ve been a free subscriber of Investment Talk for quite some time (I can’t figure out exactly how long, but it’s one of my first subs since I joined Substack).

It’s been a great wealth of information for me and I wanted to take the time to recommend it to my subscribers here at Ramblings, Readings, and Rebounds.

According to Conor himself:

Investment Talk is where I write articles about the stock market, the companies within it, and human behaviour. I focus on writing about what I find interesting, in a way that will be both enjoyable and informative to the reader.

Even if you’re not an active participant in markets, reading about investing, as well as a healthy curiosity about business are both rich foundations on which you can build lots of practical knowledge.

If you’re unsure, start by becoming a free subscriber. What is there to lose?

NBA Notes 🏀🧺

I am starting to pay close attention to the teams who are likely to reach the playoffs. Which of them have reliable styles of play, repeatable patterns of high quality offense and defense, and exude the qualities of “contenders” rather than the qualities of a team likely to fold at the first sign of playoff adversity. Here are some major takeaways:

1. I am still a Clippers-skeptic

   1. Outside of Kawhi Leonard, I’m a little underwhelmed at the offering of the other Clippers players given their roles. Paul George seems like he can’t get by anyone, and therefore is settling for low-quality jump shots for most of his offense. James Harden still has plenty of moments where he looks entirely careless with the ball and without it. Those two things specifically are cause for concern within the confines of a playoff series, where Kawhi will no doubt need some help keeping up with the firepower of other teams.

2. I’m not buying the recent Golden State surge

   1. They’ve certainly found their footing, and I previously wrote about how I still have belief in them. However, this belief is something I’ll have to carry with me into next season where they’ll make the obviously needed roster changes. They are so small, and it’s just not going to be something they can overcome in the playoffs. I’ve seen far too many four-guard lineups, and for that reason, I have to write them off as serious contenders.

3. Why isn’t OKC getting enough love?

   1. The Thunder are being written off by most pundits, and I can’t quite figure out why. I think it has something to do with how young they are, but they play with a maturity well-beyond what is normal for players of their age. They possess everything needed to make a deep playoff run.

4. The East ought to run through Boston

   1. The Celtics are plain and simple much better than everyone else in their conference. If they come up short this year by not reaching the NBA Finals, it would be close to a catastrophe. Watch them dismantle the surging Dallas Mavericks in the second half of their recent game.

      ---

Final Notes

Long Form Junto Club #1 Coming Soon

As I wrote about in RRR17, I’ll be incorporating Junto Club discussions separate from standard editions of RRR. This is going to allow me to unpack all the information, context, and thoughts necessary to provide meaningful work around important topics.

My first deep dive will be an opinion piece on why I’m optimistic about the future of humanity. I’m so excited to share it with you all 😃.

Stop Butchering Kiwis 🚫

Two questions for you:

1. How often do you eat Kiwis?

2. How do you eat them?

If you’re like the old me, you rarely buy a Kiwi yourself, because you haven’t been taught the proper way to get the skin off easily. The effort needed to research the proper technique, combined with executing it, hasn’t been worth it. You walk right by the Kiwis without another thought.

Well, for me, that all changed when I learned that Kiwi skin is entirely edible. Not only that, but it is packed with important vitamins, fiber, and other good stuff. I bought a few, tried eating them with the skin on, and am happy to report they taste even better this way. Simply cut the ends off (they have a hard to chew spot from where they were on the vine), and enjoy.

Not only that, but I think that misconceptions about how you should eat a Kiwi have created a real market inefficiency. I suspect demand for Kiwis is very low relative to how healthy and enjoyable they are. Thus, I was able to buy ten of them just this morning at a very reasonable price. I cannot do that with other, more popular types of fruit.

Thanks so much for reading, and have a great week ahead!

-Tiko

It goes something like, one party’s gain must come at another party’s loss.

There are certain areas of life where that seems to be largely true. Anywhere you see direct competition, there are likely to be zero-sum elements.

However, what happens when we incorrectly view something as inherently zero-sum? The results can be tragic.

We often miss out on mutual gain, or, win-win opportunities.

Think of all the places where a zero-sum mindset might cause disastrous results:

• International Affairs

• Personal Relationships

• Business

• Politics

• Education

• Investment

• Agriculture

• Social Programs

Rather than viewing healthy debate over challenges and opportunities as deathmatches where there is a clear winning and losing ideology, rigorously searching for mutual benefit opens the door to new approaches that will improve humanity. Widespread advantage is out there, but we need to resist the temptation to simplify the world around us into black and white.

Distilling complex issues down into simplistic trade-offs is a surefire strategy for missed opportunity and human conflict.

Hey, speaking of zero-sum thinking and missed opportunity…

What is the negative externality of subscribing to Ramblings, Readings, and Rebounds?

It’s 100% free, and the newsletter comes out about 1X a week, so there’s no bogging down of your inbox.

However, there are immense positives!

You can read a little bit about things you didn’t know would interest you. You can find reflections that bring you more joy and happiness in your every day life. You can support someone’s work at the cost of nothing besides some light thinking. What’s not to love?

Subscribe now

In Recent Times…

In RRR15, I wrote about how my body was starting to break down from overexertion.

I’ve now picked up a rather serious injury in my left ankle / foot, and I have to decide the right path forward.

Path number one would be rest it from stressful activity (i.e. no sports) for an extended period of time.

Path number two would be to be extremely proactive trying to heal / strengthen the area, while still allowing myself to put it under duress during exercise, maybe with the added stability of a strong brace.

I have a basketball league that is slated to start in 8 days, adding rapid impetus to my decision making process.

In any event, my takeaway here isn’t that I feel sorry for myself, or that this misfortune is unusually cruel. Instead, it’s just the latest reminder that progress and well-being are not linear.

When you start in a new field, expertise often comes from the mistakes made, rather than perfect execution from day one.

When you start dating someone, it takes time to build deep connection. Again, mistakes are made.

When designing and building a product, how much work gets thrown out completely?

Have a look at my chess rating over time:

This is why they call it trial and error, not trial and success.

Keep on keeping on, no matter what your striving for. It’s only when we stop trying that we put progress and well-being in jeopardy.

Content of the Week 📖🎙📺

Sabrina vs. Steph

It’s NBA All-Star Weekend, which means there’s the usual mix of some fun, and totally lame competitions.

The best one so far in my opinion took place last night, where WNBA sharpshooter Sabrina Ionescu took on Steph Curry in their own personal three-point shot contest.

I loved it for a few reasons:

For starters, I think it’s awesome that the WNBA was being represented on a huge night for the NBA. It is a great way to get more people interested / familiar with the WNBA stars who are, quite frankly, amazing.

Secondly, I was really interested to see who would win! Sabrina got to shoot with the smaller WNBA ball, but had to back up a few feet from what she is used to and shoot form the NBA three-point line. It is a seriously deep shot.

Both players put on an awesome performance, and would have more than held their own in the official NBA three-point contest that had taken place right before hand. Look at Sabrina shooting the skin off the ball on her first two spots!

It was extra impressive to me considering they tried to blind all the players with that ridiculous LED court…

An Average NFL game: More Than 100 Commercials and Just 11 minutes of Play, by Zachary Seward

For five months of the year, the National Football League dominates Sundays in the United States; it’s more popular than church.

The NFL’s popularity is all the more remarkable when you inspect the fare it has to offer each week on television. An average professional football game lasts 3 hours and 12 minutes, but if you tally up the time when the ball is actually in play, the action amounts to a mere 11 minutes.

Someone make it make sense…

Salon: Reading for Pleasure and Going Beyond Words: Events, Practices, by Frederik Gieschen

…our saturated, distracted, and divided society struggles with quite a lot, including a lack of meaning, loneliness, the dating quagmire, and rampant addiction (not to mention the ‘real’ crises like climate, AI, cold wars, hot wars, and the war for your attention). Despite its physical comforts, the present has become profoundly discomforting and disorienting.

This leads to an obvious question: ‘now what’? What is there to be done beyond diagnosis, beyond more content?

I personally might not consider something like AI a crisis, but his point is well taken. We have a lot of problems we can’t even begin to deal with unless we deal with the problems stemming from our lack of ability to live consciously.

Living Consciously

Life may not always feel very short. Sometimes, what I did a few months ago feels like several evolutions ago.

However, I suspect that when we’re lying on our proverbial death bed (assuming we’re lucky enough to die of “old age”), life will have felt utterly too short.

That’s why we need to obsess over the question of how we can extract all the goodness out of life that is reasonably possible.

I’m here to posit that living intentionally, and with as much conscious thought as we can possibly muster, is the key to this question. If we can start identifying our true desires, our weaknesses, and our blind spots, we can start slowly crafting a life that is designed for us, instead of lives that are designed to steal our attention from pressing matters, and designed to make us feel unfulfilled.

Bidenomics Boosts U.S. Manufacturing Output and Jobs, Primarily in South, West

Investments pursuant to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS Act) will provide a significant boost to semiconductor, electric vehicle (EV) and battery manufacturing, which represent around 60% of total announced spending, Fitch Ratings says. Nearly half of all planned investments are going to the South.

I previously wrote about the need to invest in America outside of just coastal population centers.

With population centers being so concentrated on both coasts, opportunities and resources have also disproportionately centered there for a long time.

Perhaps the biggest factors that have lead to inequality in opportunity are both the transition of our economy to favor white collar jobs while manufacturing and production were offshored, and the growing concentration of the U.S. farming industry.

Mo Rushdy and Unlikely Coalitions 💲🧱

I recently stumbled across a great read in the Philadelphia Inquirer about “Mo” Rushdy, a developer who is making political inroads in an attempt to make Philadelphia even more affordable for the masses.

I thought it was interesting because Rushdy seems to have worked on both sides of the political aisle in order to secure a voice for himself amongst the party’s who can help him make a difference.

Rushdy boosted his profile by raising millions for multiple political action committees, and last spring — with the backing of Pennsylvania’s richest conservative — launched a controversial super PAC to attack progressives running for mayor and Council. He landed a spot on the Land Bank board and Mayor Cherelle L. Parker’s transition team.

An interesting method…

… in 2009, amid the financial crisis, Rushdy and his partner, Lawrence McKnight, took over a stalled effort to build three Fishtown rowhouses. As the Riverwards Group, they’ve since built 709 homes with another 1,280 in the pipeline.

“We’re neighborhood developers,” Rushdy said. “We’re building product that targets the median income of Philadelphia. We cannot target the top 10%. That’s not who we are.”

Riverwards doesn’t use direct public subsidies. To keep prices down, they’ve depended on low interest rates, the 10-year property tax abatement, and cheap land.

Low-value land in neglected areas marked an opportunity for Rushdy. While other developers competed over condos or high-end rentals, he could target a different market and help revive neighborhoods like Kensington.

The bottom line is that the ideals Rushdy and Riverwards embody are sort of the opposite of progressivist solutions to solving housing affordability. Yet, a democratic mayor has chosen to work closely with him on figuring out how to revitalize neglected areas.

It’s an awesome example of why healthy debate, compromise, and willingness to take political risk are key ingredients to positive outcomes. We ought to build incentive structures into local government to achieve this sort of collaboration more frequently.

My Favorite Hoops Content

Have a look at this YouTube short from Jake Fisher. Just beautiful.

The slow motion, the sounds of the ball, the music, and the high resolution camera work that permeates the chaos of an NBA floor and unlocks the stunning beauty of well executed ideas.

It got me thinking, what would I need to start shooting things like this at my local gym when I play with my friends?

It would be fun to learn new skills and create the content. It would also be cool to have different scenarios on film to learn from by finding technical mistakes and identifying how to improve.

It’s definitely something I might experiment with this summer, which is the time of year my friends and I get pretty active in seeking out competitive runs.

Stay tuned!

That’s it for this week, folks. Some tunes below 👇🏻.

Curious - Midnight Star

Nereyda - Raulin Rodriguez

Throw It In The Bag - Fabolous

✌🏻.

Over 27,000 people have died as a result of the offensive.

Within that group there are:

• People who will leave behind children

• Children who will never grow up to meet the loves of their lives, share laughter with their friends, or have an opportunity to contribute to society in an immeasurable number of ways

• Innocent people who haven’t committed any crime, but were simply born into the wrong place at the wrong time

It’s long past the time for a cease fire agreement, and I hope that all parties involved, including third-parties like my own country, are exhausting quite literally every reasonable option to end the horrors that are taking place.

I think if more people express their frustration and confusion about why this is still going on, it would be a good thing.

In Recent Times…

Last Saturday, I started my day the same way that any fun-loving 28-year old person would; I went to the coffee shop to do my taxes.

I thought it wise to get ahead of the task instead of waiting until I was bumping up against the deadline. Has anyone else had the thought, “Why must I do my taxes at the beginning of each year?”

My employer takes money out of my paycheck and remits it to the government at the Federal and State level (and city level, in my case 🤕). Money also comes out for all the other standard deductions, such as Social Security, Medicaid, etc.

Why are we “squaring up” once a year?

For additional tax liabilities, such as capital gains, or even credits like charitable donations, can’t we handle those at the point of transaction?

Here’s a great excerpt from Quora on the subject:

Each tax season, tens of millions of American households have a decision to make.

A) They can collectively spend hundreds of millions of hours preparing tax information that the federal government already has.

B) They can pay other people billions of dollars to do it for them.

But let’s add a choice C: They go for a walk. Or, they have a nice dinner. Basically, they do whatever they want with those millions of hours and billions of dollars. Because their taxes are done for them, for free. They receive a document from the government with all of the relevant information already filled out, and they check a box to say, “okay!"

In the United States, the third choice sounds like a fantasy. But the excruciating pain of tax season is just another example of negative American exceptionalism. In fact, about one-half of American taxpayers earn all their income from one employer’s wages (which the IRS can see) and interest from one bank (which the IRS can find out without much effort). The IRS could easily send tens of millions of individuals their nearly completed taxes by mail—or even, by text.

“Rather than some crazy, wild idea that’s never been tried before, this is doable and a lot of countries do it,” said William Gale, a tax expert at the Brookings Institution. Eight OECD countries, including Finland and Norway, fully prepare returns for the majority of its taxpayers. In Estonia, it famously takes the average person five minutes to file taxes.

In Sweden, the vast majority of taxpayers don’t do battle with tax documents and fine-print questions about itemized deductions. They just get a document from the government with all the relevant information already filled out. Some even get a text message with their prepared tax information, and if they respond “yes,” their taxes are done. Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, a chief economist with the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce, told PRI that individuals with more involved filings can always spend more time on their taxes, if they like. “If you don’t have any complicated things that you want to do”—like listing business expenses from a sole proprietorship —“it takes you five seconds,” he said.

In any event, getting my taxes done was a fruitful decision in the end. I met two interesting people, had my mom meet me for a bagel, and now have one less to-do on my plate ✅.

As an aside, the conversation with my new acquaintances served as a timely reminder that making new friends is an integral part of life that many of us don’t spend enough time doing. Make sure you get out there and talk to some new people!

Content of the Week 📖🎙📺

Temple aid to help make tuition free for low-income Philadelphia families by Susan Snyder

An obviously large problem in the U.S. is lack of opportunity for people born into difficult circumstances. Here’s a commonsense program that will likely have immeasurable impacts on the city of Philadelphia and it’s inhabitants:

Temple University on Thursday announced a new program that will make tuition and fees free for first-time, full-time college students from low-income families who live in the city of Philadelphia.

The Temple Promise program would cover costs for students whose families’ adjusted gross income is $65,000 or less and be applied after all other federal, state and scholarship aid is tallied. The new program comes in addition to Temple’s Cecil B. Moore Scholars program, which awards scholarships that cover full tuition at Temple for public school students in eight zip codes in its North Philadelphia neighborhood.

America, please be reasonable on immigration by

In the 90s and 00s, U.S. fertility hovered right at the replacement rate; since the Great Recession, it has tumbled.

In fact, without immigration, the U.S. labor force would have barely grown at all over the last decade and a half:

Without immigration, our labor force will eventually shrink. A smaller and smaller number of working-age people will be required to support a larger and larger number of retirees — either through eldercare or through taxes. The young generation of America will bear a crushing burden.

In addition, a shrinking America would have a smaller market size, making it a less attractive destination for investment relative to the huge and growing markets of Asia. A deficit of high-skilled immigrants would be particularly harmful, since these workers are a big draw for high-value industries like software, biotech, and advanced manufacturing. Without skilled immigrants, we will have a hard time competing with China’s much larger talent pool.

I would recommend reading the whole piece. I was shocked, frankly, at some of the quotes that Noah dug up for this one. Take for example the following quote from a University of Pennsylvania law professor, highlighting how racist attitudes towards immigration are horrifyingly commonplace in places you might not expect:

Here’s the problem. [Indian immigrants] taught that they are better than everybody else because they are Brahmin elites and yet, on some level, their country is a shithole…They’ve [realized] that [the West has] outgunned and outclassed them in every way… They feel anger. They feel envy. They feel shame. It creates ingratitude of the most monstrous kind.

Unbelievable.

Financial Literacy 2023 Legislation

I stumbled into this courtesy of The Progress Network.

• Legislatures in Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Rhode Island and Tennessee recognized April as financial literacy month.  

• Idaho established provisions requiring one or more courses in financial literacy for grades nine through 12 in school districts, specially charted districts, and public charter schools throughout the state, effective July 1, 2023. Financial literacy curriculum must include core competencies defined in statute.  

• West Virginia will require high school students to complete a one-half credit personal finance course during grades 11 or 12, starting with students entering grade nine in the 2024-25 school year.  

Small potatoes, maybe. But this is the exact direction U.S. public schools need to be headed.

Why is it that most high school graduates know more about Poseidon than they do about how to save effectively, or what goes into buying a home?

2016 WCF, Game 6

My friend and I were recently chatting about some of our favorite NBA playoff games. There are a few for me where I will simply never forget where I was, who I was with, and the surrounding context of the game.

Flashback to May 28th, 2016, and you will find one such game for me. My friend Chris and I were in Ocean City, Maryland, having a few beers on the boardwalk.

The Golden State Warriors, defending NBA champions, and winners of an NBA all-time record 73 regular season wins, were trying to come back from a 3-1 series deficit against the Oklahoma City Thunder, featuring the duo of Russel Westbrook and Kevin Durant at the peak of their powers.

After winning game 5 at home to bring the series to 3-2, Golden State needed a game 6 road win to keep the series alive. What ensued is simply some of the most heroic shot-making you could ever hope to see, in one of the highest stakes situations you could imagine.

After trading blows back and forth all game, the Thunder had banked an important 8-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. While Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors were tremendous in the fourth quarter, it was Klay Thompson who snatched the souls of the opposition with his unconscious shooting performance, scoring 19 points in the final frame.

Some of the shots are simply out of this world, given the fatigue that would have set in. Not to mention the pressure of the moment. Thompson finished with a then-record 11 three-point makes in a Playoff game 🎯🎯.

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